Top Stories of the Week

Waymo introduces $30-a-month premium tier for riders who want faster pickups (link, no paywall).

Riders will receive a number of perks, including priority pickups, 10 percent cash back on every trip, early robotaxi access in new cities, and up to five free cancellations a month. Waymo Premier will be initially offered to select riders in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix.

I like it. Priority pickup will probably be the biggest benefit for riders. And on the business side, this is a smart way to segment customers. Waymo has fewer levers than Uber or Lyft to manage supply and demand, since it can’t just use driver incentives to bring more cars onto the road during peak demand times. So it makes sense to prioritize your most loyal riders while creating a new recurring revenue stream in the process.

Urban Autonomy Summit

We had a great turnout at the Detroit edition of our Urban Autonomy Summit, presented by Nexar, with over 200 attendees! It was exciting to bring the event to the cradle of the U.S. auto industry and connect with so many people shaping the future of mobility and autonomy. Big thanks to all the TDD readers who attended, and to our partners at Terawatt, TaskUs, Rocsys, and Voltera for helping make it happen.

We're heading to Austin next (link) on October 14, followed by San Francisco on January 27, 2027. Reach out if you’d like to get involved as a partner. Spots are filling up fast!

Other Stuff

Bolt, Stellantis, Pony.ai to launch autonomous vehicle test program in Luxembourg (link, no paywall).

Their pilot program ​will focus on validating the safety, ​performance and regulatory readiness of Pony.ai’s autonomous ‌vehicles ⁠in Luxembourg’s traffic environment, the companies said. Stellantis will contribute a mid-size van based on its L4-Ready platform, they ​added

Maybe I’m becoming harder to impress, but it’s difficult to get too excited about another AV pilot with a safety driver behind the wheel. Europe has no shortage of autonomous vehicle announcements, pilots, and demonstrations, but the question I keep coming back to is: where are the driverless rides?

And to be clear, this isn’t a knock on Pony.ai’s technology. We already know Pony can operate driverless services in China. The more interesting question is what Europe needs to do from a regulatory and operational standpoint to move beyond safety-driver pilots and toward actual driverless deployments.

At this point, I’m almost more impressed by companies like Bliq pursuing an advanced L2/L3 approach with remote supervision and no one behind the wheel than an “L4” pilot that still relies on a safety driver. If a human is sitting there ready to take over, it’s hard to know how autonomous the system really is. The real milestone isn’t launching another pilot. It’s removing the driver.

Related: Europe’s First Driverless Vehicle Approval with Bliq CEO Julian Glaab (link).

‘Europe does not have an AV pilot problem. Europe has an AV commercialization problem’ (link).

Lyft Flexdrive CEO, John Parks: Big milestone for the Flexdrive team this week as our staff has fully taken over day-to-day fleet operations for Waymo out of their temporary depot in Nashville (link).

Terawatt’s energy mission (link).

Pittsburgh firm wants parking fees for driverless cars (link). Interesting piece on Meter Feeder that mentions our coverage of Waymo’s snooze fee feature. Chime in on the discussion here.

Welcome to the Waymo World Cup (link, no paywall).

Match attendees can catch driverless rides to six of the 16 North American venues: stadiums in Atlanta, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, and the San Francisco Bay Area.

Uber Opens London Waitlist for Wayve Robotaxis Ahead of Launch (link, no paywall).

Customers in the UK can join an “interest list” in the Uber app starting Monday to indicate their preference and increase their chances of being matched with a Wayve robotaxi when the service begins, Uber said in a statement. The ride-hailing company didn’t disclose a timeline for the launch.

Another European robotaxi pilot with safety drivers. But to Wayve’s credit, they’re at least pursuing a mapless approach, which gives them a compelling scalability story. If Wayve can prove its technology works across cities without extensive mapping, expanding into new markets could be much faster and less capital intensive than traditional robotaxi approaches. The real challenge, though, isn’t launching a pilot. It’s removing the safety driver and scaling commercially.

Streamlining Charging Operations, Hands-Free and At Scale

We are excited to have Rocsys, the global leader in hands-free charging solutions, as the sponsor this month. Rocsys enables robotaxi fleets to maximize uptime and throughout by delivering consistent, predictable performance that allows vehicles to charge seamlessly, reliably, and safely as soon as they return to the depot. To learn more, contact Erin Galiger, Rocsys Director of North American Markets, at egaliger@rocsys.com.

Discover Rocsys

Motional: Cracking the Long-Tail Code in Autonomous Driving with nuReasoning (link).

‘The future of ride-hailing in Southeast Asia will not be fully autonomous’ (link).

‘Letters: These riders can’t use Waymo’s driverless cars and are treated like second-class customers’ (link, no paywall).

Waymo’s lack of wheelchair accessibility has generated criticism from some disability advocates, but I think the issue is more nuanced than it’s often portrayed.

Uber and Lyft drivers are notorious for issues with riders traveling with service animals, so Waymo has arguably improved accessibility for many riders. And the company’s new Zeekr-based vehicle includes accessibility features like braille labels and audio guidance.

But Waymo still doesn’t have a great solution for riders who rely on wheelchairs and cannot transfer into a standard vehicle on their own. Today, those riders are generally directed to a human-operated wheelchair-accessible vehicle service rather than an autonomous vehicle, which makes sense since the whole point of Waymo is that there is no driver.

At the same time, the technology to support wheelchair users isn’t new. All licensed London black cabs are wheelchair accessible, demonstrating that accessible vehicle fleets can work at scale. The bigger question is whether accessibility should be built into the first generation of the Ojai or whether it’s reasonable to expect companies like Waymo to address it in future vehicle platforms. Personally, I’m sympathetic to both sides. Ojai is still an early product, but if robotaxis are going to become a meaningful part of the transportation system, wheelchair accessibility can’t remain an afterthought forever, especially since Waymo has rightly made accessibility and mobility independence a core part of its broader mission and messaging.

Tesla’s Robotaxi Falls Short With Long Waits and Stalled Rides (link, no paywall).

Almost a year later, Tesla has just 59 vehicles in its entire robotaxi fleet as of Tuesday, limited to three Texas cities.

Ojai is live! (link). I think it’s interesting that the Ojai and the I-PACE are two separate options on the Waymo app even though they both hold four passengers. The downside of this setup is that you’re effectively bifurcating the fleet, which could lead to longer ETAs since Waymo now has to match riders with a specific vehicle type instead of drawing from a single pooled fleet.

‘Nuro test vehicle in SF.’ (link).

Waymo bought Apple’s self-driving car proving ground for $220M (link). The sale was recorded in June 5, and the massive 5,500-acre proving ground includes a 115-acre city course, a 35-acre vehicle dynamics area, a four-mile oval track, and a freeway course purpose-built for autonomous vehicle testing.

PepsiCo and Gatik Announce Multi-Year Agreement to Deploy Autonomous Freight in North America (link).

Waymo says it built a better benchmark for comparing robotaxis to humans (link).

The biggest difference between this new model — which Waymo calls the Reference Driver — and its predecessor is that it is able to reproduce a human driver’s behavior in the run-up to a crash. Previously, Waymo’s models (and other industry models) focused on replicating “last-second, reactive” human maneuvers, according to the company.

Exclusive-Uber’s Commitment to Self-Driving Startup Nuro Is Close to $500 Million, Sources Say (link).

Waymo Readies First National Ads as Rivals and Critics Proliferate (link, no paywall). I liked the ad.

Autonomous vehicles were supposed to cut traffic—what if they don’t? (link). Not sure I agree with the title (I certainly never thought that) but the ‘paper’ the article is about seems to echo an article we wrote on TDD last year (link).

A similar analysis conducted late last year on Waymo’s CPUC data from January 2024 through September 2025 by Matthew Raifman, who studies policy and autonomous vehicles at UC Berkeley, also found that 44 percent of Waymo’s miles were driven with empty vehicles and that two-thirds of those empty miles were robotaxis driving around waiting to be assigned a customer... In total, about 40 percent of the miles traveled by a Lyft or Uber driver are deadhead miles, suggesting there’s little difference in congestion whether there’s a human behind the wheel or not.

Lockton and Nexar Introduce Human-Benchmark Framework for Autonomous Vehicle Safety (link).

‘When we talk about autonomy, everyone looks at the vehicle, but the real work is in the support layer. You can’t have a fleet without a foundation that’s ready to handle the day-to-day grind of thousands of units (link)’ via Nick Allen at TaskUs.

What else we’re reading/listening to

Autonocast by , , and Kirsten Korosec: #365: How To Insure Autonomous Vehicles w/ Steve Miller of Hub International (link).

Europe’s First Driverless Vehicle Approval with Bliq CEO Julian Glaab (link). Our latest podcast where we discussed Bliq’s transition from ride hailing to autonomous vehicles, why the company is betting on privately owned AVs, and what Europe’s evolving regulatory landscape means for the future of autonomy, among other things.

Autonomy Insiders by , with : What Waymo’s Data Reveals About Who Actually Rides Robotaxis (link).

AVs/Humans behaving badly

‘I schedule a Waymo for 4:15, it arrives at 4:09 and is leaving 2 mins before the scheduled arrival time? And then they charge me for being on time??’ (link). This is a poor pickup experience and an easy way to damage the brand. Scheduled rides are often reserved for high-stakes trips like airport runs and important meetings, which is why riders pay a premium and expect the vehicle to arrive early and to wait. Having a Waymo show up ahead of schedule, wait just two minutes, and leave before the actual pickup time is a big miss. If the issue was that it was stopped in a bike lane, the car could have circled the block and returned closer to the scheduled time. It feels like a relatively easy fix, and it’ll be interesting to see how quickly Waymo addresses it.

‘Waymo decides to drive on the wrong side of the road’ (link).

‘It is insanity’: SF luxury condo owners fume over aggravating neighbors - They’re Waymos (link, no paywall).

AVs/Human behaving “goodly” :)

‘A good example of predictive AI from the Waymo Driver: in a split second, it predicted an initial crash of human-driven cars in the next lane, anticipated a secondary collision, and proactively shifted lanes — all while managing its distance from the vehicles around it’ (link).

‘When riding in the Ojai for the first time it plays an updated welcome video showing how to manually open the doors in case of an emergency’ (link).

May Mobility: Nagoya’s streets don’t leave much room for hesitation. Tight streets are exactly where reasoning in real time earns its keep (link).

Shout-outs

Big thanks to TDD readers at Zag Daily for referring new subscribers. If there’s someone you think would enjoy TDD, feel free to forward this email or use the referral button below, and we’ll make sure to shout out your company.

Refer a friend

Neat Jobs

Fleet Operations and Field Engineering Lead at Wayve (link) via Ken M.

Vehicle Recovery, Safety, & Logistics - EAST at Waymo (link) via Luke Gunderson.

Job Moves

Jillian Noël: Piva Capital -> Terawatt (link).

Adam Warner: EverDriven -> TaskUs (link).

Leticia Cavalcante: Waymo (link).

We’re now at 11,000+ subscribers! Interested in advertising with TDD? Check out our media kit here and reach out to us. Newsletter spots are currently sold out until September.

Reach out

Until next week :)

-Harry

Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, and Substack. Transcripts are also available by clicking on the “transcripts” button in the top right corner of this post on the app/web version. You can also access them from the email version by clicking here.

In today’s episode, I’m speaking with Julian Glaab, co-founder and CEO of bliq.ai, a Berlin-based autonomous mobility company that recently received Europe’s first approval for road operations without a driver behind the wheel in Estonia. Julian shares the story of how Bliq evolved from a ride hailing platform into an autonomous vehicle company, the challenges of making that transition, and why he believes the future of autonomy extends well beyond traditional robotaxi services.

We discuss Bliq’s unique approach to autonomous vehicles, including its vision for privately owned driverless cars, the role of teleoperation in enabling safe deployments, and the technology stack powering its vehicles. Julian also explains why the Hyundai IONIQ 5 has become a popular platform for autonomous vehicle developers, how much their AV stack costs, and the different ways Bliq plans to commercialize its autonomous vehicle technology, including a subscription model for private users.

The conversation also explores the broader autonomous vehicle landscape in Europe, including the region’s regulatory environment, how it compares to the United States, and why Bliq chose a different path to commercialization than many of its peers. Finally, Julian shares where people can experience Bliq’s vehicles today, the most promising use cases for autonomous vehicles in Europe, and what’s next for the company as it expands its driverless operations.

Chapters

• (00:00) Introduction to Julian Glaab

• (02:35) Bliq’s history and how they evolved from ride hailing to autonomous vehicles, including the challenges involved, and public perception

• (10:10) Julian’s definition of a robotaxi, and Bliq’s approach to building driverless cars for private ownership

• (14:06) The current state of Bliq’s teleoperation and their approach to safety

• (15:05) Bliq’s tech stack

• (16:28) Why Bliq (and most of the AV industry) chose the Hyundai IONIQ 5 platform

• (18:25) Bliq’s fleet size, and the cost of their AV stack/vehicles

• (21:12) Bliq’s business model, and how their AV subscription model unlocks new use cases for private users

• (23:41) Is Bliq more of an AV operator or an AV provider?

• (26:25) Why Bliq didn’t start as a robotaxi provider and future plans for AV ride hailing

• (27:40) The most valuable use cases for autonomous vehicles in Europe

• (30:30) How restrictive the European AV regulatory landscape is, how it compares to the U.S., and the way forward

• (35:20) How Bliq’s teleoperation works, its advantages, challenges, and the critical metrics they look out for

• (42:04) Where to find Julian and Bliq’s AVs

• (44:00) Conclusions and final thoughts

Notes/Links:

• You can find Julian an LinkedIn and X.

• Bliq Receives Europe’s First Approval for Fully Driverless Road Operation. Without a Driver Behind the Wheel (link).

-Harry

Top Stories of the Week

WeRide, Uber, and AVOMO Bring Robotaxis to Madrid (link).

The service is expected to begin operations later this year, in collaboration with Madrid’s Regional Government (Comunidad de Madrid), with rides available via the Uber app. The parties expect the fleet to scale progressively and will initially include trained vehicle operators, with WeRide, AVOMO and Uber committed to adding hundreds of Robotaxis as key performance milestones are met, including the expansion of fully driverless commercial service across core urban areas.

Other Stuff

Tesla expands service area of unsupervised robotaxis in Austin (link, no paywall).

Records from the Texas Department of Motor Vehicles showed the company has 42 registered cars in the state as of Wednesday. A third-party robotaxi tracking website indicated that about 21 unsupervised cars were active.

Retired Waymo EV batteries will get a second life as grid storage (link).

For Waymo—which operates autonomous EVs that drive for hours at a time, providing a total of more than 500,000 paid trips a week—that means that “sometimes, our vehicles outlast our batteries,” says Adam Lenz, the company’s head of sustainability and environment. But even if that battery isn’t fit to power a car anymore, it can still store energy. And now, retired Waymo batteries will get a second life as grid storage, helping firm up electricity grids in the same areas where Waymo is active.

Uber to put 500 data-collection vehicles on the road this year (link).

The vehicle is not some radical design. Rather, it’s a Hyundai Ioniq 5 fitted with an incredible number of sensors on the top and sides… Uber said Wednesday that it plans to roll out 500 of these kitted-out Hyundai EVs globally this year. That fleet will be able to collect “2 million miles per month of high-fidelity data” for robotaxis. Uber expects 50 of these vehicles to be on the road by the summer.

‘One thing most mobility operators underestimate: Real estate is the hardest part of scaling…’ (link).

Wayve is launching an AI lab to look beyond self-driving cars (link, no paywall).

Multibay Hands-free Charging for Autonomous Fleets

We are excited to partner with Rocsys this month, the leading provider of hands-free charging infrastructure with deployments worldwide. To learn more about how the Rocsys M1, an overhead rail-mounted solution, can deliver up to 75% higher operational efficiency from existing staff, connect with Erin Galiger, Rocsys Director of North American Markets, at egaliger@rocsys.com.

Discover Rocsys

Avride CEO, Dmitry Polishchuk: We have completed over 60,000 trips for Uber riders and doubled our service area in Dallas since the launch in December last year. Our fleet of 200+ cars (including R&D and Uber robotaxis) has driven over 1.3 million miles, with a million miles covered in the first five months of 2026 (link).

‘Cybercab driving itself out of the GigaTexas factory’ (link).

Engineering for the unlikely: How Zoox designs and tests edge cases (link).

‘Interesting Mercedes-Benz test vehicle spotted in San Francisco. Anyone know the details?’ (link).

Inside Uber’s strategy to avoid a head-on collision with autonomous cars (link, no paywall).

Waymo Halts Freeway Operations, Stops Service in Some Cities Without Clearly Communicating What’s Up (link). Here’s what I told PC Mag for this interview:

“Waymo needs to do a better job communicating, as a lot of people have come to rely on the service,” Campbell says. “We knew something was up for a few days before the official announcement, which makes caution understandable, but incidents like this could hurt trust if riders suddenly lose freeway access or see service limited by construction, weather, or other operational issues.”

Is This Self-Driving Pod The Future Of Indoor Transit? (link, no paywall).

‘I wonder how much the shift from Jaguar to Zeekr (and also Hyundai, eventually) vehicles will or will not affect Waymo’s “premium” brand positioning. From being picked up in a kinda cool Jaguar to a Pixar-looking minivan’ (link). I don’t think this will be much of an issue for the Zeekr, since it still feels purpose built and differentiated. The bigger brand positioning challenge may come with Waymo’s next vehicle: the Hyundai IONIQ 5, which is rapidly emerging as the autonomous vehicle industry’s platform of choice thanks to its software defined architecture. In addition to Waymo, it’s being used by Motional, Avride, Bliq, and now Uber, which plans to roll out 500 sensor equipped IONIQ 5s for data collection this year. As more operators converge on the same platform, the vehicle itself becomes less of a differentiator.

The AV Future Might Not Be Shared (link, no paywall).

Compared to robotaxis, personally owned AVs will be even more likely to expand total car use, since their appearance and amenities will reflect their owners’ preferences and they will always be available when requested. The sunk cost fallacy also suggests that those who have purchased AVs will take more car trips than if they had to pay separately for each ride.

Related: Robotaxi: Own or Rent? Revisited (link).

Waymo & Zeekr made a taxi for America! (link).

Campus delivery robots are becoming a robotics workforce pipeline (link).

‘Wait so in California a 17-year-old can drive a car but can’t be a passenger in a Waymo by herself?’ (link). I still think it’s strange that Waymo’s policy appears to be: if a rider is discovered to be under the age of 18, the vehicle can no longer continue the trip, regardless of where they are or what time it is (link).

Related: Tesla Self-Certifies Level 4 Autonomous Vehicles in Texas (link).

There’s a debate over the long-term market structure for autonomy (link).

Robotaxis Are Spreading Across the U.S.—and So Is the Backlash (link, no paywall).

‘We are building an autonomous future that is accessible to all fleets. [Tesla] Vehicle Management endpoints provide access to vehicle product information such as specifications, option details, pricing, warranty coverage, and eligibility for subscriptions and upgrades’ (link).

People are leaving a lot of weird stuff in their robotaxis (link).

Our Zeekr RT (Ojai) vs Jaguar I-PACE comparison chart from last week sparked some interesting discussion on LinkedIn (link).

What else we’re reading/listening to

A recording of the NYU Cardozo Robotaxi Symposium, that took place on May 28 at New York University School of Law (link), via Matthew Wansley.

Uber CEO on AI, Autonomous Vehicles, and the Future of Transportation (link).

Related: AVs on Uber’s platform see 30% higher utilization… (link). Interesting claim, although I’m not sure how Uber would know what utilization looks like on Waymo’s first party platform, since I can’t imagine Waymo is handing over that data.

Waymo’s California Growth May Be Slowing, But It’s Complicated (link) via .

Lyft’s Hybrid Approach to Autonomy with CEO David Risher (link). Our latest podcast where we also discussed Lyft’s partnership strategy with companies like Waymo, and why David believes Lyft can play a major role in the AV future without developing its own self-driving technology, among other things.

AVs/Humans behaving badly

‘Waymo gotta add homeless people to their training data in SF. I’ve been stuck on this left turn for 5 mins cause this brother is blocking it’ (link).

Get-a-Waymo: How a burglar used a robotaxi to flee the scene in a first-of-its kind S.F. case (link, no paywall).

‘Self-driving cars are fun because you never see competing SaaS products having a literal standoff in the street’ (link).

‘That’s going to be a while’ (link). Guess it’s time to call a Lyft.

‘A 60mph+ reckless wrong-way driver on a 40mph road can easily lead to severe collisions. Two different Waymos (and an attentive human ahead!) avoided tragedy in Phoenix the other week by taking evasive action’ (link).

AV/Human behaving “goodly” :)

‘Cutting across three lanes to make a last-second turn? The Waabi Driver saw it coming’ (link). As AVs become more common, it will be interesting to see whether some human drivers start exploiting their predictability, taking actions they might not attempt around another human driver.

‘You can’t even walk the sidewalk in LA’ (link).

Shout-outs

Big thanks to TDD readers at TaskUs, Mad Hatter Mobility, Lyft, Plus.ai and to David for referring new subscribers. If there’s someone you think would enjoy TDD, feel free to forward this email or use the referral button below, and we’ll make sure to shout out your company.

Refer a friend

Neat Jobs

Sr. Electrical Engineer, Self-Driving & AI Hardware at Tesla (link) via Mitchell Johnston.

Demand Operations Manager - London at Waymo (link) via Leticia Cavalcante.

Senior Embedded Middleware & Automation Engineer at Zoox (link) via Rajeev Verma.

Legal Counsel (Commercial) at Wayve (link) via Rohan Kazi.

Director, Systems Engineering at Nuro (link) via Garima Sangwan.

Job Moves

Brett Suma: Loadsmith Ventures -> Bot Auto (link).

Allison Khoe: ŌURA -> Waymo (link).

Lynda Talgo: Waymo (link).

We’re now at 10,000+ subscribers! Interested in advertising with TDD? Check out our media kit here and reach out to us. Newsletter spots are currently sold out until August/September.

Reach out

Until next week :)

-Harry

Recently, Harry had an interesting piece exploring whether Waymo’s growth in California might be slowing with some interesting theories on why. If you look at a chart from that article, it sure looks like there has been a plateau in ride growth in 2026 after an accelerated growth pattern in the second half of 2025. Today, I thought I’d do some regression analysis and see if we can tease out what Waymo’s growth might have been without all those exogenous shocks.

TLDR: After adjustment, Waymo’s trip growth does appear to be decelerating, but it doesn’t look like that is driven by supply. Rather, it might be that people are using Waymo differently in California and taking longer trips.

A rollercoaster of a road

A lot of things happened in Waymo World over the last two years. More than 180,000 Angelenos evacuated due to wildfire risk at the start of the year 2025. Five Waymo vehicles were burned in the June 2025 in anti-ICE protests in Los Angeles and Waymo paused service in parts of LA and San Francisco in response. And then there was December 2026 when San Francisco had two distinct service disruptions in a single month: a PG&E substation fire that knocked out power across a third of the city, and a flash flood pause on Christmas Day (Waymo issued a recall recently to fix this issue but the implications of that recall won’t show up until the next quarter of data is released). Over the same period, the Waymo service zone roughly quintupled in size, with the Peninsula south of San Francisco coming online in stages. Freeway service launched in November with San Jose airport launched the same day. SFO service launched in late January 2026.

How do we tease out Waymo’s growth from the noise?

The bumps in Waymo’s California trip curve come from two different sources. Some are things Waymo itself chose to do (expansions, fleet increases…); others are from things that happened to Waymo (riots, fires, PG&E). We want to include Waymo’s choices in the chart but exclude the exogenous effects. The approach is straightforward. We fit a smooth growth trajectory to the months that weren’t disrupted by external events, then compare the disrupted months against where the trajectory says they should have landed. A quartic polynomial does this nicely, since it can capture both the rapid early growth and the gradual flattening as the service matures. There are limitations of course, generally due to lack of data, but let’s see what we can do.

Disentangling the Waymo trip data from exogenous shocks

The black line below is what actually happened. The red line is the best-fit trajectory, drawn through the 18 months that weren’t externally disrupted. The hollow circles mark the affected months, which are excluded from the fit and shown against where the trajectory says they should have been.

For most of the period, the actual data sits right on top of the trajectory. The fit threads through the clean months almost mechanically, which tells us Waymo’s California growth has followed a remarkably smooth S-curve from April 2024 onward: rapid acceleration through 2024 and the first half of 2025, an inflection in mid-2025, and gradual flattening through Q1 2026 as the service matures.

The excluded months tell us how much the external events cost Waymo. The January 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires drove ridership 11% below trajectory, with a lingering 8% depression in February as evacuations stretched on and air quality stayed bad. The June 2025 ICE protests were the largest single shock at 34 % below trajectory. Recovery from ICE was slower than one might have guessed: July came in 20% below trajectory, and August was still 16% below. The service did not really get back to trend until September. The December 2025 PG&E blackout and Christmas flood pause came out at 4% below trajectory, modest but real, and on the chart you can see it as a small but visible dip. (We can debate whether Q1 would have been higher if December shocks had not happened, as it did kick off a lot of debate).

The bigger picture from this analysis: Waymo’s California growth has been remarkably smooth and predictable except for the externally disrupted months. That said, so-called exogenous effects will likely continue to happen. Waymo trip growth appears to be tapering off in 2026; however, we will never have a counterfactual to truly know what might have been. This best fit analysis should be adjusted when new quarters come online and the interpretations may change.

What is happening with wait time?

The wait time series is the most informative single metric in the dataset for understanding what’s happening operationally. Trip counts swing with availability, trip mix, and outside disruptions. Wait time, by contrast, may show us how well supply is matched to demand on any given day. The fact that California wait time has been pinned at 18 minutes through every disruption, every expansion, and every quarter since mid-2025 is a strong signal that the system is in some kind of operational equilibrium.

The natural question is whether Waymo is actively managing to that 18 minute number, or whether it just happens to be a product of where supply and demand have been intersecting. The data alone can’t fully distinguish those two stories.

The short of it: California growth is decelerating, but the conventional explanations for why don’t fit the data. At a time when Waymo is expanding nationally, it would be natural to think that this is a supply story. Maybe Waymo is reallocating resources elsewhere. I don’t think that is what is happening. If we piece together what public data is available on the size of the Waymo fleet, it seems to have kept growing through every disruption, from about 950 vehicles in June 2025 to around 2,000 by March 2026.

Wait times have been pinned at 18 minutes per trip every month since mid-2025, through the November peak, the December disruptions, and Q1 2026. If demand were outstripping supply, wait times would likely show an increase. If demand were collapsing, they would be shrinking all things equal. Now, we cannot tell if Waymo is actively managing demand to hit a ~18 minute level, but the wait time data certainly don’t suggest the exogenous shocks are shaking the wait time equilibrium.

Waymo trips are getting longer

What is changing is average trip length. Average rider miles per trip rose 45% since January 2024, with most of the gain in the last six months as freeway service and the airports came online. From November to March, trip counts grew about 7% while total rider miles delivered grew about 13%.

The trip length shift tells us something important about how Californians are using Waymo. In early 2024, when the service was almost entirely urban San Francisco, the average ride was under three miles, short, dense, urban trips. By March 2026, with freeway service open, SFO and SJC online, and the unified Bay Area zone in place, the average trip is 3.9 miles. People are taking airport runs, longer cross-city rides, and freeway routes that weren’t possible a year earlier. The mix is shifting from short urban hops toward something closer to a general-purpose mobility service.

This matters for the business model and for how we read the trip count signal. On the business side, longer trips with the same fleet might mean more revenue per car per day and more rider miles delivered per dollar of fleet capex. On the metrics side, it might explain why headline trip count is getting noisier as a signal of growth: from November to March. If you want to track Waymo’s actual California growth, rider miles will be increasingly important to examine alongside trip counts.

Waymo deadheading is decreasing

There is a second efficiency story running alongside the trip-length one. Passenger-occupied miles as a share of total vehicle miles climbed from 45 percent in April 2024 to roughly 58 percent by March 2026 (i.e. vehicle miles when the Waymo was notdeadheading). Most of the gain happened in the first year of the dataset, after which the service has stabilized in the 55 to 58 percent range. Idle miles, the share of vehicle miles spent between rides without a passenger or an assignment, fell from 39 percent to 27 percent over the same window. Pickup miles stayed roughly flat at 13 to 15 percent. So the fleet is doing longer trips on average and spending a smaller share of its miles empty.

What we can tell in May 2026

So, is Waymo’s California growth plateauing? Sort of. The underlying trajectory of trip count is genuinely decelerating. It is bending along a smooth S-curve, which is what services do as they mature. Perhaps the best corollary example of this is Uber and Lyft ride-hail trips. We can’t look at this in California, because the data is redacted, but New York City provides public data on TNC trips. In the chart below, ignoring the large COVID-19 drop in 2020-2023, there does appear to be a plateauing also occurring in ride hail trips in NYC after a period of rapid growth. Underneath the Waymo headline trip-count number, the more interesting story is operational: the fleet kept growing through every shock, wait times stayed pinned at 18 minutes, trips got 45 percent longer, and deadheading dropped 13 points.

Methods note. Monthly trip data is from CPUC’s Driverless Deployment quarterly filings, January 2024 through March 2026. The trajectory comes from an OLS regression of log(weekly trips) on a quartic polynomial in time, with HAC (Newey-West, 3 lags) standard errors. The regression is fit only on the 18 months that were not externally disrupted; the remaining 6 months of January and February 2025 (LA wildfires), June through August 2025 (ICE protests and recovery), and December 2025 (PG&E plus Christmas flood) are excluded from the fit and shown on the chart against where the trajectory predicts they should have been. The quartic captures both the rapid early growth and the smooth flattening into Q1 2026; cubic and quintic specifications were tested but quartic is statistically preferred (AIC -66.7 versus -44.4 for cubic and -64.8 for quintic). The trajectory implicitly includes the cumulative effect of all of Waymo’s expansion choices through the period (Peninsula in Aug 2024, Silicon Valley in Mar 2025, larger Peninsula push in Jun 2025, freeway plus SJC plus unified Bay zone in Nov 2025, SFO in Jan 2026), though with only 18 clean observations the model cannot separately identify each individual expansion’s contribution. Fleet anchors are Waymo public disclosures to TechCrunch, the SF Examiner, and Business Insider, interpolated log-linearly between dated anchors. Analysis supported by Claude AI.

Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, and Substack. Transcripts are also available by clicking on the “transcripts” button in the top right corner of this post on the app/web version. You can also access them from the email version by clicking here.

In today’s episode, I’m speaking with David Risher, Chief Executive Officer of Lyft. We discuss how Lyft is thinking about the autonomous vehicle transition, where the company fits into the broader AV ecosystem, and why David believes Lyft can play a meaningful role even without developing its own self-driving technology.

We also dive into Lyft’s partnerships with autonomous vehicle companies, including its recent big launch with Waymo in Nashville, and explore how Lyft and AV operators can complement one another through a hybrid marketplace model. David shares how receptive AV companies have been to Lyft’s value proposition, the biggest challenges facing autonomous vehicle deployment today, and what Lyft’s investors, drivers, and riders think about the growing role of autonomy in the industry.

We also discuss David’s first ride in a Zoox robotaxi, whether consumers are likely to use multiple autonomous vehicle and rideshare apps, and how Lyft views competition and cooperation with companies like Uber and Waymo. Finally, David explains how Lyft’s Flexdrive subsidiary fits into the company’s long-term autonomous vehicle strategy, highlights progress with international partners, and shares what excites him most about Lyft’s autonomous future.

Chapters

(00:00) Introduction to David Risher

(02:27) What Lyft’s overall AV strategy looks like

(03:35) How confident is David in the maturity of AV tech?

(04:40) How important are AVs to Lyft right now, and how much are they focusing on them?

(06:47) Are Lyft’s investors interested in AVs?

(08:57) Where Lyft stands out most in the AV future, and what they bring to the table

(12:20) How receptive are AV companies to Lyft’s value proposition?

(13:30) The hardest challenge for AV companies

(15:29) Lyft’s partnership with Waymo in Nashville, and how it works

(17:01) How Lyft and Waymo complement each other in Nashville through their hybrid partnership

(19:01) The biggest challenge in the hybrid partnership

(22:04) What Lyft drivers think of the partnership with Waymo

(24:04) How does AV proliferation affect human drivers in the long run, and what are their current concerns?

(27:09) David’s first Zoox ride, and his experience

(29:00) Are customers likely to download multiple rideshare/AV apps?

(30:50) David’s thoughts on Waymo’s relationship with Uber

(32:35) How Lyft’s demand aggregator role connects with the AV fleet maintenance role of their Flexdrive subsidiary

(34:20) Lyft’s AV strides with their international partners

(37:15) What the ideal Lyft AV product/partnership would look like in London

(38:19) What has David most excited about Lyft’s AV future

(38:55) Conclusions and final thoughts

Notes/Links:

• You can find David on LinkedIn and X.

• Lyft’s article about former drivers filling in AV roles in their new AV depot, mentioned in the 22:07 timestamp (link).

• David’s first Zoox ride.

-Harry

Top Stories of the Week

Waymo opens Ojai robotaxis to select riders as company aims to lower cost of fleet expansion (link).

Rides will be available to some public passengers in San Francisco, Los Angeles and Phoenix, before opening up in San Diego, Las Vegas and Denver this summer, Waymo said in a statement on Thursday. Alphabet’s self-driving division already had 100 Ojai vehicles on the road as part of its almost 4,000-car fleet. The company will have thousands of Ojai cars on the road by the end of the year, Ryan Powell, Waymo’s head of design, told CNBC in an interview.

Related: We tried out Waymo's spacious new robotaxi Ojai. It glitched, but we had way more space and could fit in 6 suitcases (link).

Other Stuff

Revel to Merge With EQT-Backed Voltera, Uniting EV Charging Networks (link, no paywall).

The combined business, which will operate under the Voltera brand and be led by Revel Chief Executive Officer Frank Reig, is expected to include more than 1,000 charging stalls across 11 major US markets, the companies said in a statement on Tuesday. In addition to building infrastructure for autonomous and ride-hail vehicles, the new company “expects to explore adjacent opportunities,” including fleet services, charging for non-autonomous cars, and energy management solutions such as battery storage.

Waymo Takes Its Self-Driving Cars to Virginia (link, no paywall).

Ethan Teicher, a spokesperson for Waymo, confirmed the move to WIRED and called it “an important preparatory step should the Commonwealth authorize fully autonomous ride-hailing.” Still, he said, the company does “not currently have plans for a commercial service there.”

Built for Autonomous Fleet Deployment

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Bliq Receives Europe’s First Approval for Fully Driverless Road Operation. Without a Driver Behind the Wheel (link). Bliq appears to be using its own tech stack instead of relying on a partner like WeRide or Pony.ai. Also notable is that they’re using the Hyundai Ioniq 5 platform, which is quickly becoming the “default” robotaxi vehicle for many AV developers. As more companies converge on the same “car of the future,” it raises the question of how they (including Waymo) will ultimately stand out if everyone is using the same vehicle.

Bliq.ai, a European startup developing driverless cars for private use, announced that it has received approval to operate its vehicles on public roads in Estonia without a driver behind the wheel. The approval marks the first authorization of its kind in an EU member state and enables Bliq to begin fully driverless road operations under remote supervision. With a dozen vehicles already in operation and further expansion underway, Bliq currently operates what the company believes to be the largest completely driverless vehicle fleet in Europe.

Ecarx, Backed by Geely’s Li, to Sell Robotaxis to US Startup (link, no paywall).

Under the deal, Ecarx would deliver thousands of self-driving cars and design the computing platforms and sensor suites for the vehicles, according to a statement on Tuesday. That should help halve the all-in cost of May Mobility’s autonomous vehicles by 2028, it said.

Diagnosing the long tail: how Mobileye turns edge cases into targeted training (link).

‘We’re starting to see how markets with AV rideshare affect traditional rideshare metrics, but the impact looks different depending on the market’ (link).

End of the Road? Autonomous Vehicles and Displacement Risk (link) via Steve Greenfield.

Blind Waymo Users Revel in the Joy of Riding Alone (link) via Suzanne Philion.

‘Trying to start small talk in LA Ubers’ (link).

‘The Reason Why Waymo Robotaxis Keep Driving Into Floods’ (link).

We just announced an outstanding line up of speakers for our Detroit Urban Autonomy Summit, presented by Nexar, happening on June 9, 2026 in the Motor City!

• Jon Miller — Chief Business Officer at Nexar

• Henry Greenidge — Senior Policy Advisor & Counsel at DoorDash Labs

• Peter Cohen — GM of AV + Rideshare at Terawatt

• Justine Johnson — Chief Mobility Officer at State of Michigan

• Patrick George — Detroit Bureau Chief at The Wall Street Journal

• John McLean — Head of Market Development at Voltera

• Jordan Prickett — WW AI & Automation Partnerships at IBM

• Erin Galiger — Director of North American Markets at ROCSYS

• Nick Allen — Head of AV / Mobility Solutions at TaskUs

• Alessandra R. Carreon — Chief Climate Officer at Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy

• Tom Tang — Chief People and Customer Operations Officer at May Mobility

• Alan Hall — Director, Communications & Marketing at Motional

We’re bringing together operators, policymakers, and mobility leaders for an afternoon/evening of panels, networking, and candid conversations around the future of autonomy. We are nearly at capacity, so apply to attend now.

Glydways: This isn’t a vehicle problem. It’s an architecture problem… (link).

Rivian Is Betting Big On This $45K SUV (link).

New bill could bring Waymo robotaxis to the Capital Region (NY) amid concerns (link).

Avride: 600k completed robot deliveries! (link).

I Nailed a Robotaxi Forecast In 2013. Here’s Why Elon Keeps Blowing It (link, no paywall).

Why Tesla’s AI trainers don’t trust its self-driving tech | Reuters World News (link).

What else we're reading/listening to

Junko’s Tech Probe by : AV: Where Did the Docs Go Wrong? (link).

This Week in Startups: The Drone Company Quietly Taking Over Delivery (link).

Welcome to Ground Truth | Introducing Aseon Labs (link). Cool new series from .

Why Autonomous Fleets Aren’t Ready for Real Cities Yet (link).

Thesis Driven: The Driverless Car Is Coming for the Strip Center (link).

Related: The Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Real Estate with Brad Hargreaves (link).

Waymo’s Case for a Driverless Future | Tekedra Mawakana, Sal Khan | TED (link).

Related: Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana outlines vision for a world of autonomous vehicles (link).

Shift Podcast: Nuro’s Andrew Chapin: Only a few robotaxi companies will survive (link).

Related: Why Nuro thinks being a robotaxi ‘second mover’ gives it an advantage (link, no paywall).

Inside Uber’s AV Strategy with Founding Member Eduardo Rojas (link). Our latest podcast episode features former Uber autonomy and delivery leader Eduardo Rojas, where we chat about Uber’s early AV strategy, how it’s evolved over the years, and why partnerships have become such a key part of Uber’s approach, along with a bunch of other interesting topics.

Our next guest is can’t miss though, so stay tuned.

AV Events

Zoox: We’re on our way to Denver for CVPR! If you’ll be there next week, stop by booth #747 to say hi, meet some of our crew, and see our robotaxi up close (link).

Nexar Account Manager Dean Becker will also be heading to ITS America in Detroit from June 9–12, where Nexar will be showcasing alongside IBM (link).

AVs/Humans behaving badly

‘Waymos confused by the In-N-Out line’ (link).

‘Silicon Valley promised driverless cars. We got robot traffic instead’ (link).

‘Waymo refused officers’ orders’ (link).

‘Waymo driverless vehicle driving on the wrong side of the Venetian Causeway’ (link).

Bay Area couple says Waymo sped through construction zone, followed by police (link). Looks like this might be connected to the freeway halt from last week.

‘When you find a stop sign in the trash’ (link).

‘The Waymo car is destroyed on Memorial day Ice protest in Los Angeles’ (link).

‘How are Waymos when it comes to teens riding alone?’ (link).

Shout-outs

Big thanks to TDD readers at May Mobility, Workers Benefit Fund and to Vandana M for referring new subscribers. If there’s someone you think would enjoy TDD, feel free to forward this email or use the referral button below, and we’ll make sure to shout out your company.

Refer a friend

Neat Jobs

Senior Product Data Scientist, Pickups & Dropoffs at Waymo (link) via Alex Shannon.

Recruiting Coordination Lead at Zoox (link) via Melissa M.

Staff Product Manager – Cloud Platform - AI Portal (link) via Claudia Bertani.

Job Moves

Megan Jensen: Uber -> Coco (link).

Alvaro Martinez: Serve Robotics -> Nuro (link).

We’re now at 10,000+ subscribers! Interested in advertising with TDD? Check out our media kit here and reach out to us. Newsletter spots are currently sold out until August/September.

Reach out

Until next week :)

-Harry

I’ve been running a real-world electric fleet in Austin for 18 years as the Founder and CEO of eCab. Not a pilot project or a carefully geofenced demo route built for investors and conference presentations. A real transportation business operating in one of the fastest-growing and most chaotic cities in America. We’ve never had institutional investment, and I’m by no means a trust-fund baby. I mention that because we’ve always had to focus on operating models that generate profit, not buzz.

Over the years, we’ve moved millions of passengers through football games, concerts, protests, SXSW crowds, flash flooding, road closures, construction zones, police reroutes, and the kind of late-night downtown unpredictability that never appears cleanly inside simulation environments. We’ve also worked directly with autonomous vehicle technology long before most people were seriously talking about robotaxis.

So when I hear people confidently predicting that fully autonomous fleets are right around the corner, I understand where the excitement comes from. The technology itself is impressive, and vehicles today can already navigate many environments better than most people imagined possible even a decade ago.

But after nearly two decades of live fleet operations, I also think the industry is underestimating what it actually means to run transportation systems inside real cities. Right now, most of the public conversation around autonomous vehicles is happening between software engineers, futurists, investors, and people who primarily experience transportation through controlled deployments. The discussion tends to focus on perception models, edge cases, compute power, mapping accuracy and safety statistics.

Those things absolutely matter, but cities don’t care about PowerPoints. The novelty of every new mobility platform eventually wears off, and the practicality of the service coupled with the overall rider experience ultimately determines who survives in the mobility ecosystem.

Cities care whether the system actually works on a Friday night when 80,000 people are trying to leave downtown at the exact same time while half the streets are under construction and someone has blocked a pickup zone with a delivery van.

That’s the part of transportation that’s difficult to explain unless you’ve spent years inside operations. The challenge is rarely just the vehicle itself. The challenge is everything surrounding the vehicle.

Autonomy removes the driver, not the chaos

One of the biggest misconceptions in the AV world is the belief that removing the driver removes the complexity. In reality, cities are unpredictable because people are unpredictable. A police officer manually overrides traffic flow. A concert lets out early. A water main breaks. A rideshare pickup zone suddenly becomes unusable because pedestrians spill into the street. Construction crews reroute traffic using temporary signage that didn’t exist six hours earlier.

Human drivers improvise around these problems constantly, and a surprising amount of urban transportation depends on that improvisation layer functioning properly. That reality is still massively underestimated by people who primarily understand cities through maps and simulations.

The challenge isn’t simply making a vehicle drive itself. It is building an entire transportation system that can continuously adapt to environments that break their own rules every day.

That’s one reason I’ve become increasingly skeptical of the way autonomy is marketed to the public. The vision being sold is one where transportation operates almost magically without people, but once you spend time around real autonomous deployments, you realize the labor never actually disappears. It simply moves behind the curtain.

Behind every “driverless” fleet is a surprisingly large operational support structure made up of remote operators, maintenance technicians, charging crews, dispatchers, recovery personnel, safety supervisors, infrastructure specialists, and field response teams constantly solving problems the public never sees. When an autonomous vehicle gets stranded, blocked, vandalized, confused, or trapped in some strange edge-case scenario, humans still step in to resolve the situation.

In many ways, the complexity hasn’t been eliminated at all. In some cases, it has actually increased because operators are now managing both robotic systems and the human systems supporting them simultaneously. I’m sure the cost of these operations will amortize over time as the technology scales, but I remain skeptical of the fully driverless utopia currently being marketed to the public.

That doesn’t mean I believe autonomy is doomed. Far from it. But I do think the industry needs to be more honest about what deployment actually looks like. Far too much emphasis is being placed on the technology itself and not enough on the actual public benefit.

What passengers really want

Underneath all of this is a bigger question that almost nobody seems willing to ask openly: Did the public actually ask for fully autonomous transportation in the first place?

I don’t believe people are lying awake at night wishing their Uber driver would disappear. What they actually want is transportation that’s affordable, reliable, safe, clean, and available when they need it. Somewhere along the way, the transportation industry quietly substituted those goals with a completely different mission: removing human operators. Those are not automatically the same thing.

This is where whiteboards and spreadsheets collide with reality. Humans are not just a cost center inside transportation systems. They’re also the improvisation layer, the judgment layer, and sometimes the accountability layer. Quite often, they’re the only thing keeping systems functional when reality stops behaving predictably.

The AV industry became so focused on asking whether vehicles could drive themselves that it forgot to ask whether society was actually demanding fully driverless transportation to begin with. Outside of investor circles and tech conferences, most passengers care about three things: Does the ride show up? Can they afford it? Will it get them there safely? Everything else is secondary.

Smart cars still need smart cities

From my perspective, the real bottleneck for autonomy isn’t software alone. It’s infrastructure. Most people see the LiDAR stacks mounted on vehicles like Waymo and Zoox and assume the systems are fully self-contained. They’re not. Autonomous fleets are deeply dependent on communications infrastructure, mapping fidelity, and real-time environmental awareness that most American cities simply were not designed to support.

GPS itself becomes unreliable in dense urban corridors surrounded by concrete and glass. Anyone can test this by walking through downtown Austin while using navigation on their phone and watching the location drift block by block. That level of ambiguity becomes a serious problem when autonomous systems are expected to operate safely at scale.

Without substantial investment into intelligent infrastructure and Public Infrastructure Network Nodes (PINNs), fully autonomous urban transportation becomes far more difficult than most people realize.

Then there’s the fact that American cities themselves were never designed for autonomous transportation systems. Our curb management, pickup zones, roadway layouts, communications systems, traffic coordination, and signage are fragmented and inconsistent almost everywhere you go. Autonomous fleets perform best in highly controlled environments, while cities are the exact opposite of controlled environments.

The real winners

That’s why I believe the companies that ultimately win this space won’t necessarily be the ones with the flashiest demos or the loudest marketing. Flashy gets the initial attention, but operating a reliable service that actually works and turns a profit is what ultimately determines who survives.

The winners will be the companies that understand operations. They’ll understand fleet logistics, charging coordination, maintenance cycles, municipal politics, teleoperations, infrastructure integration, and real-world deployment reliability. More importantly, they’ll understand that transportation is not simply a software business; it’s a systems-management business operating inside messy human environments.

That distinction matters because, right now, a lot of current AV business models are surviving on investor patience more than proven operational sustainability. Again, that doesn’t mean autonomy fails. I still believe autonomous systems are coming, and I think they’ll eventually become a meaningful part of urban transportation. I just don’t believe the end state looks like the science fiction version we’ve been sold.

The future is probably hybrid. Smaller human teams supervising increasingly intelligent fleets through remote intervention systems, intelligent infrastructure, and layered operational oversight feels far more realistic to me than fully removing humans from the equation entirely.

That future also feels more honest because it acknowledges something the transportation industry eventually learns the hard way: technology matters, but operations will decide who survives.

- Chris

Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, and Substack. Transcripts are also available by clicking on the “transcripts” button in the top right corner of this post on the app/web version. You can also access them from the email version by clicking here.

In today’s episode, I’m speaking with Eduardo Rojas, an autonomous delivery operator and former founding member of Uber’s Autonomous Mobility & Delivery team. Eduardo shares insights from his time helping shape Uber’s early autonomous vehicle strategy, how the company’s thinking around AVs has evolved over the years, and why partnerships have become such a central part of Uber’s approach.

We also discuss the current relationship between Uber and Waymo, including the tradeoffs between Waymo’s vertically integrated model and Uber’s demand aggregation strategy, whether Waymo risks sidelining an important partner, and how investors may be interpreting Uber’s position as autonomous vehicles scale. Eduardo explains how Uber supports AV partners today, where he sees the biggest opportunities in autonomous delivery, and what the future could look like for both companies as robotaxis and autonomous logistics continue expanding.

Finally, we explore the broader competitive landscape, the evolving economics of autonomy, and where Eduardo believes the biggest opportunities lie as autonomous delivery and rideshare move toward larger scale commercialization.

We’re now at 10,000+ subscribers and currently looking for podcast sponsors.

The Driverless Digest podcast reaches thousands of industry insiders every week across autonomous vehicles, mobility, robotics, transportation, and tech, including teams at companies like Waymo, Uber, Zoox, Lyft, DoorDash, and more. If that sounds interesting, please reach out below and let’s chat.

Reach out

Chapters

(00:00) Introduction to Eduardo Rojas and his background at Uber

(03:07) Uber’s AV delivery strategy in its early days

(06:59) How Uber’s autonomous delivery/rideshare strategy has evolved

(14:40) Has Uber’s focus shifted from mobility to delivery?

(16:34) How Uber supports their AV partners.

(18:00) Uber’s stock price and how it’s reacting to Waymo’s AV dominance

(20:34) Waymo’s first-party model vs. Uber’s demand/supply aggregator model

(23:50) Waymo’s first-party model vs. partnerships with TNCs.

(31:13) The direction of Waymo and Uber’s relationship, and why Waymo might have snubbed Uber in recent launches.

(33:57) Why Waymo should further partner with Uber, and the potential downsides of sidelining Uber

(35:32) The potential future direction of Waymo and Uber’s partnership

(37:32) The future of autonomous delivery and where the opportunities lie

(42:00) Conclusions and final thoughts

Notes/Links:

• You can find Eduardo on LinkedIn.

• My article about the Waymo and Uber relationship, mentioned at the 31:10 timestamp - Is the Uber x Waymo Partnership Coming to an End?

• Uber CTO’s tweet criticizing Waymo, mentioned at the 31:27 timestamp (link).

• Eduardo’s post about the Waymo-Uber relationship, mentioned at the 31:39 timestamp (link).

-Harry

Top Stories of the Week

Wayve to power STLA AutoDrive in Stellantis vehicles (link).

Stellantis and Wayve have entered a strategic technology partnership under which Stellantis will integrate the Wayve AI Driver into its STLA AutoDrive platform, supporting hands-free Level 2++ supervised automated driving across urban and highway environments. The first vehicle integration is scheduled to launch in North America in 2028.

Related: Stellantis extends Applied Intuition partnership (link).

It’s exciting to see more OEM partnerships dropping with AV companies and this is also one of the themes we’ll be exploring at the Detroit edition of our Urban Autonomy Summit presented by Nexar on June 9. We’re less than 3 weeks away and can’t wait to show you what we have in store. RSVP here.

Waymo halts freeway rides after robotaxis struggle in construction zones (link). We knew something was up for a few days before this announcement, but it’s probably smart for Waymo to be cautious here. I do wonder whether these types of incidents cause any long term brand damage though. If riders start relying on Waymo for freeway access or general transportation, it’s not great to suddenly lose those capabilities, or see service constrained by construction zones, weather, or other operational limitations.

Waymo has suspended robotaxi service on freeways in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Miami as it works to improve performance in construction zones, the company confirmed to TechCrunch on Thursday. Waymo said it’s in the process of integrating “recent technical learnings into our software and expect to resume these routes soon.” Waymo robotaxis are still operating on surface streets in those cities.

Related: Waymo Suspends Service in Atlanta as Robotaxis Stumped by Floods (link, no paywall).

Other Stuff

Tesla reveals two Robotaxi crashes involving teleoperators (link). The crashes appear relatively minor, but the bigger unanswered question is the denominator: how often are teleoperators intervening and over how many total miles?

Tesla Robotaxis have crashed at least twice since July 2025 while a teleoperator was remotely driving the vehicles, according to newly unredacted information submitted to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Both crashes happened in Austin, Texas, and occurred at low speeds. In each case, there was a safety monitor behind the wheel and no passengers were onboard.

Turn Signal: Confessions of a (former) robotaxi hater (link). In depth comparison of Waymo, Zoox and Tesla’s robotaxi:

“I do think we’re a little past the stage where one bad incident can kill a company,” Harry Campbell, founder of The Driverless Digest, told Sherwood News.

An S.F. doctor sued Waymo for allegedly flagging him as a terrorist. Here's why he dropped the case (link, no paywall). I was a little surprised to learn that Waymo reportedly cross checks riders against sanctions lists as part of its identity verification process. One criticism of Uber has long been that almost anyone can sign up and ride, but maybe things change when you own the car and have no driver onboard? 🤔

Some people who worked with Waymo told him that the company’s identity verification process cross-checks the Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctions list compiled by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. The government watch list includes the names of terrorists, narcotics traffickers and people tied to oppressive regimes or national security threats, among others. The list did not contain the name Nasser Mohamed, but it bears similarities to “one or more Muslim or Middle Eastern names on the list,” the lawsuit claimed.

‘California’s new AV rule is a signal that the regulatory conversation is moving from incident reporting toward risk measurement’ (link).

‘Waymo Spotted in Detroit’ (link).

Musk says Tesla unsupervised FSD will be ‘widespread’ in the US by year-end — again (link).

Waymo Fleet More Than Triples In Size Year-over-Year, According to NHTSA Recall Data (link).

‘Waymo may not have a demand problem. It may have a car problem’ (link).

Related: Stay tuned for my upcoming podcast interview with Eduardo Rojas, founding member of Uber’s Autonomous Mobility & Delivery team. Subscribe today so you don’t miss it!

Uber is deploying its own self-driving cars again, just not as robotaxis (link, no paywall). This is interesting because Uber famously doesn’t own vehicles, so this could mark the start of a new internal fleet, even if it’s being used primarily for AV data collection.

Uber is putting its own autonomous vehicles back on the road as part of its new AV Lab project to collect data for its dozens of robotaxi partners. The cars will be fitted with all the sensors typical of self-driving cars, like cameras, lidar, and radar. But notably the vehicles will not be operating as robotaxis, just gathering data for Uber’s dozens of robotaxi partners… These vehicles, which will be manually driven, will generate revenue and complete regular Uber trips.

‘Waymo Ojai Ride Inside’ (link). I’m 6’3” so was hoping for a little more legroom 😅 Hopefully the front seat automatically moves up when needed.

Why it might not make sense for you to own a self-driving car (link). I like the idea of personally owned AVs, but it seems tough to pursue both (vehicle production and AV tech) business models at once. Waymo feels like it’s in a much better position to refine the tech through robotaxi operations first, then potentially lease or sell vehicles to consumers down the line.

If a robotaxi’s hardware proves inadequate, the company can upgrade it without angering early adopters. A company can offer robotaxi service in one city without annoying customers who want to go somewhere else. Robotaxi companies never need to haggle with customers about paying for maintenance and repairs. And when customers hail a robotaxi, they’re only betting that it will get them across town. They don’t need to worry about whether the company will still be around 10 years later.

Waymos navigate Bay to Breakers (link).

Related: ‘Waymo Zeekr wearing a costume for bay to breakers’ (link).

‘It’s so neat. Self-driving cars have vestigial structures just like whales’ (link).

Faster Data Off the Vehicle—Faster AI on the Road

Virewirx’s VX60 High Performance Wireless System has piqued our interest—that’s why we’re partnering with them this week to share their unique millimeter wave system built to move massive AV fleet data quickly and reliably. Reach out to Brian Lee at info@virewirx.com to learn more.

‘Apollo Go had a strong start to 2026’ (link). I’m still wondering what happened with their outage in Wuhan though.

WeRide Announces Strong Q1 2026 Financial Results: Total Revenue Hit US$16.5 Million, Driven by Robotaxi and ADAS Commercialization (link).

Waymo is now the same price, or more, than Uber Black and Lyft Black (link).

60 Minutes: Robotaxis coming to London pose threat to cabbies who memorize 25,000 streets to earn licenses (link). I disagree with the cab drivers interviewed in this story. Knowing landmarks, directions, etc. is definitely valuable, but technology like Google Maps and Waze can, and should, complement the job. Memorizing routes was a much bigger advantage before smartphones, real time traffic data, and navigation tools became ubiquitous.

Related: How Will London’s Driver Market Respond to Autonomous Vehicles? (link).

Robots cleaning water at Port of Los Angeles; tons of trash to be removed over next several months (link).

Xpeng mass-produced robotaxi rolls off production line (link).

Unlike many rival autonomous systems, the robotaxi does not use LiDAR sensors or high-definition maps. Instead, it relies on a “pure vision” approach driven by Xpeng’s VLA 2.0 end-to-end AI model… Pilot operations are slated to begin in the second half of this year to test technical performance, user acceptance and its business model. Xpeng is aiming for fully driverless operations, without an on-site safety officer, by early 2027.

What else we're reading/listening to

Autonomy Insiders by : Is the Uber-Waymo Partnership Coming to an End? (link). It was a pleasure to be interviewed in this episode where we discussed Waymo and Uber’s relationship, and what’s really going on between the two companies.

Waymo Testing New ‘Snooze Fee’ That Lets Riders Delay Pickup (link). Our latest article that’s already getting some love on Reddit and X.

Sidebar by Courthouse News: The Self-Driving Dilemma (link), featuring one of our contributors, Sergio Avedian.

AV Events

Ride AI 2027 is returning to the SFJAZZ Center in San Francisco on April 7, 2027 (link). And relatedly, check out the sizzle reel (link). I hope to make it next year.

The Automated Transportation Symposium will be taking place from July 27 - 30 in San Diego (link). Hub International SVP of Innovation Steve Miller will also be speaking on the “Communicating Safety: the L2 (plus) and L3 Puzzle” panel on July 28 (link).

‘Over 100 people have registered for the NYU Cardozo Robotaxi Symposium! It’s now ten days away--Thursday, May 28 at New York University School of Law!’ (link).

Kodiak: Less than two weeks until Signal. On May 26, Dr. Marco Pavone joins us at Kodiak’s Mountain View HQ for a conversation on Physical AI, autonomous driving, and what it takes to build AI systems that can reason and act in the physical world (link).

‘July 16th 2026, AUTONOMOUS is coming to San Francisco. We won’t be coming alone’ (link).

I’ll also be in San Francisco next week for a big podcast interview…any guesses? 🙃

AVs/Humans behaving badly

Empty Waymos invade Atlanta neighborhood, circle cul-de-sac for hours with no passengers (link).

Related: ‘Waymo in the Neighborhood’ (link).

A stuck Waymo has been blocking my alley for hours (link).

‘Waymo vs cone in Atlanta’ (link).

‘Waymo attacked in the UK’ (link).

‘All [Two] Waymos came to halt on the expressway’ (link).

‘A delivery robot was “love-struck” after being crashed into by a driver in Philadelphia’ (link).

Neat Jobs

Multiple open roles at Waymo (link) via Suzanne Philion.

Senior Program Manager, Service Operations, AV Fleets at Uber (link) via Dan Sussna.

Senior Manager, Robot Industrial Design at Zoox (link) via Chris Stoffel.

Job Moves

Jon Glassman: Google -> Waymo (link).

Keerthan Shetty: Continental -> Einride (link).

Amy Nicol: Mattermost -> Waabi (link).

Shuchi Anandpura: Zoox (link).

Shout-outs

Big thanks to TDD readers at CSAA Insurance Group, Flytrex, Uber and to Stanley Y for referring new subscribers. If there’s someone you think would enjoy TDD, feel free to forward this email or use the referral button below, and we’ll make sure to shout out your company.

Refer a friend

We’re now at 10,000+ subscribers! Interested in advertising with TDD? Check out our media kit here and reach out to us. Newsletter spots are currently sold out until August/September.

Reach out

Until next week :)

-Harry

Waymo has long had relatively strict pickup policies, including a $4.99 cancellation or no-show fee (plus tax). But this appears to be the first time I’ve seen the company explicitly monetize extra pickup wait time.

The feature appeared as the pickup countdown clock was close to expiring and I was about to be charged a cancellation fee.

In this instance, I was actually running a bit behind, so I opted to add the extra two minutes. Waymo then offered me the option to pay $2.50 for additional wait time before the vehicle departed.

At first glance, this may seem like a minor user interface update. But small product changes often reveal larger operational priorities.

As Waymo scales to hundreds of thousands of weekly rides and expands into new cities, fleet utilization becomes increasingly important. Every extra minute spent waiting for riders is time a vehicle could potentially be serving another trip.

The fare for this trip was $34.45 to go 7.64 miles over 18 minutes, or about $1.91 per minute. By comparison, the ‘snooze fee’ worked out to $1.25 per minute for additional wait time, without Waymo putting extra miles on the vehicle. It’s a small sample size, but suggests Waymo may already be assigning meaningful economic value to idle vehicle time.

Uber and Lyft have similar waiting time policies and typically begin charging riders per minute after the first 2 minutes, though the rates tend to be fairly low and vary by city. That’s one reason many drivers are eager for riders to come outside quickly, as extended waiting time is often poorly compensated.

On cancellations, Uber and Lyft are generally less strict since drivers have discretion over whether to wait longer or cancel after 5 minutes. Waymo removes much of that flexibility, with countdown timers and fees enforced directly through the app.

There may also be another incentive at play. While Waymo charges a $4.99 cancellation or no-show fee, the company likely doesn’t actually want riders to miss their trips. Preserving an existing ride with a $2.50 extension may be more valuable than collecting a cancellation fee, then repositioning the vehicle and waiting to match with another rider.

In that sense, the feature may function less as a penalty and more as a way to improve trip completion rates while keeping vehicles utilized.

I haven’t seen this feature discussed publicly, so it’s unclear whether this is a limited test in Los Angeles, a broader rollout, or something tied to specific demand conditions. But if this feature expands, it may offer an early glimpse into how autonomous ridehail platforms think about balancing customer experience, trip completion rates, and fleet utilization.

If you’ve seen this feature in your market, let me know. I reached out to Waymo for more information, but haven’t heard back yet.

Hacks to Delay

Now of course, if you want to save the $2.50 altogether, you’ve got a few options. The tried and true method of moving your pick-up location around before the vehicle arrives still works. And on Saturday night, I also noticed that you can use the ‘pull ahead’ feature once the vehicle has arrived to give you a few extra seconds. And then of course, if you’re really in a pinch, just open the trunk and the Waymo has to wait for you :)

Any other hacks or tricks that I’m missing?

-Harry

Top Stories of the Week

Alphabet’s Waymo to add 200 square miles of coverage area to existing markets (link).

Waymo announced today that it’s expanding its coverage in several existing markets, including Miami, the San Francisco Bay Area, Houston, Austin, and Atlanta. That will bring its total coverage area to more than 1,400 square miles across 11 cities.

Other Stuff

‘Exclusive: Uber tries a different playbook with robotaxi policy push’ (link). Uber shared a new autonomous vehicle policy paper with Axios that addresses issues including job displacement, congestion, accessibility, and safety as the company pushes for broader robotaxi adoption. Uber says AV rollouts will require partnerships with cities, regulators, and workers, while arguing that human drivers and robotaxis are likely to coexist on the platform for many years. The company also noted that AV legislation has stalled in several states, even as Uber continues expanding its network of partnerships with autonomous vehicle developers.

One of the benefits of autonomy is that it won’t scale as quickly as early Uber did, which means a lot of the negative externalities can be mitigated with thoughtful policies and discussions. This paper is obviously full of pro Uber solutions to AV challenges, but it does raise a few interesting points.

I’ve been critical of Uber for not doing enough to address the impact of AVs on drivers, so it’s nice to see them starting to talk about it. And for the first time that I can remember, Uber acknowledges in this paper that work will change for drivers, something that’s long been discussed but never fully addressed. However, I’m not sure I buy that a hybrid only market is better for drivers than a fully AV driven market. To me, they both present similar challenges. The latter is just more directly competitive with Uber.

As autonomous vehicles begin operating alongside human drivers, they will influence work and earnings dynamics across markets. We believe overall demand for mobility will continue to grow. But we should be honest: in many cities, drivers will face fewer, or different, trip opportunities over time. Acknowledging that reality is a necessary starting point for handling the transition responsibly.

One important point in the paper is about regulatory arbitrage in cities (like NYC or Seattle), where protections and benefits are tied directly to fares. This mirrors what we often see with minimum wage increases. Well-intentioned policies designed to protect workers can sometimes unintentionally incentivize companies to replace human workers with technology. In this case, AV operators may be incentivized to prioritize markets with higher labor costs, not because those markets need autonomy most, but because replacing human drivers yields greater economic returns. This is concerning, as policies designed to protect workers could unintentionally accelerate their displacement.

Another noteworthy point is the credible risk that poorly managed AV deployment could increase congestion in dense city centers. Human driven rideshare networks inherently have a constraint: drivers weigh their time against potential earnings, so when demand drops, many log off. This is a fundamental way Uber matches supply with demand. AVs, however, don’t operate with that same natural constraint, which could lead to more cars on the road when they’re not needed.

Related: Uber has been taking direct — and indirect — shots at its partner, Waymo (link, no paywall).

Calls to pause Waymo’s London robotaxi trial after police cordon incident (link). So maybe they should ban human drivers?

A petition launched by Brent Green Party, the local Green Party for the borough, is urging the Mayor of London to pause the autonomous vehicle pilot after a Waymo test vehicle drove through a live police cordon on Harlesden High Street while officers were investigating a double stabbing on 22 April…Waymo confirmed the vehicle involved in the Harlesden incident was operating in manual mode “with a validation driver in full control”. The company said the driver has since been suspended pending an investigation.

Related: How Will London’s Driver Market Respond to Autonomous Vehicles? (link).

The unexpected superpower behind Lyft’s new AV depot: former drivers (link). Lyft clearly got the memo. Obviously this is good PR but it also makes a lot of sense to hire drivers to help with AV fleet operations.

Waymo CPUC Data Update (Q1’26) - Flat growth in California (link).

Police in Nashville can now issue Waymo traffic citations under new law (link).

Lucid-Uber Robotaxi Partner Nuro to Open First European Hub in Germany (link).

The Munich office will serve as Nuro’s European hub, supporting engineering, operations, and partner engagement, according to the Softbank-backed company. The European hub will allow Nuro to validate and adapt its technology for European driving conditions and regulatory frameworks.

Built for Autonomous Fleet Deployment

Voltera develops, owns, and operates high-capacity charging infrastructure purpose-built for autonomous vehicle fleets. By managing site selection, power coordination, construction, and operations, Voltera enables rapid deployment in dense urban markets where land, power, and permitting are the biggest constraints. As autonomy scales, infrastructure becomes the bottleneck. Voltera delivers high-performance fleet hubs that remove upfront capital and execution risk—enabling faster market entry and scalable deployment.

Please reach out here to learn more about partnering with Voltera.

‘Waymo checking out the competition’ (link).

UK Government signs self-driving deal with Wayve (link).

Under the MoU, Wayve will share findings from its real-world trials with the government and regulators, supporting work on safety assurance and large-scale simulation. The partnership also covers the integration of full self-driving technology into production-ready vehicle platforms.

‘Reuters tests out Tesla Robotaxi in Dallas’ (link). Doesn’t seem like a great experience.

‘Delighted to inform you that Waymo merch has landed in SF’ (link).

‘You can just put your whole bike in a Zoox’ (link).

's says Waymo is "significantly ahead" compared to Tesla FSD when it comes to safety (link). This isn't controversial. The real question is whether Tesla can get to Waymo levels of safety and scale. Because if they do, they have some major advantages from being vertically integrated. Tesla has their super charging network and the ability to produce 5,000 cars a day. Waymo’s entire fleet is only 3,000 cars and is a big limiting factor to growth.

An Open Letter from the Medical Community on America’s Road Deaths (link).

Waymo recalls 3,800 robotaxis after glitch allowed some vehicles to ‘drive into standing water’ (link).

The voluntary recall is for Waymo vehicles that use the company’s fifth and sixth generation automated driving systems (or ADS), the U.S. auto safety regulator said in the letter posted Tuesday. Waymo autonomous vehicles in Austin, Texas were recently seen on camera driving onto a flooded street and stalling, requiring other drivers to navigate around them. Similar incidents have occurred in other locations, the latest safety-related issues for the Alphabet-owned AV unit that’s rapidly bolstering its fleet of vehicles and entering new U.S. markets.

Related: Waymo car stalls Austin traffic after refusing to cross puddle (link).

Uber partner Avride is under investigation for self-driving crashes (link).

The safety regulator’s Office of Defects Investigation (ODI) said all 16 crashes that it has identified have to do with “the competence of” Avride’s self-driving system, which has apparently struggled with changing lanes, responding to other vehicles in the same lane, and responding to stationary objects.

New poll shows what San Francisco residents really think about Waymo cars (link, no paywall).

Autonomous Driving Showdown: Who Will Win the Self-Driving Race? (link). Great interviews featuring Wayve CEO Alex Kendall, Waymo VP of Onboard Software Srikanth Thirumalai, BYD Executive Vice President Stella Lee, and Einride CEO Roozbeh Charli.

Waymo Factory May 2026 Update (link). Most of the cars in the lot are now Ojai 🤔

Letter: Where does the money spent on a driverless rideshare go? (link). This is one argument against AVs that I am sympathetic to.

‘Why does Uber make me accept a ‘match’ with a Waymo when they know I’m going to say yes literally every time’ (link).

Related: The ‘Waymo on Uber’ Experience, Feedback From a Power User - Ethan McKanna (link).

What else we're reading/listening to

Autonomy Insiders by : Flexdrive: Lyft’s Secret Weapon in Autonomous Mobility (link).

Is Waymo’s Growth in California Flattening? (link).

Autonocast by , , Kirsten Korosec: #363: Lucid Gravity Review, Nuro, Waymo Tesla FSD, AV Policy Roundup (link). Interesting thoughts on the Lucid Gravity driver/rider experience and how it might fare in the robotaxi passenger context.

Zoox’s Approach to Scaling Autonomy with Marc Wimmershoff (link). Our latest podcast episode features Marc Wimmershoff, VP of Autonomy Software at Zoox, discussing the company’s purpose-built robotaxi strategy, teleguidance at scale, and how Zoox is thinking about deploying AVs safely and reliably at scale.

AVs/Humans behaving badly

‘Poor Waymo lol’ (link).

‘POV: you order a Zoox in SF and a homeless person jumps in it’ (link).

‘Driver captures Waymo chaos in Nashville’ (link).

‘At least he did it outside’ (link).

‘Waymo Running Red light in Dallas 5/9’ (link).

Video shows aftermath of rollover crash involving Waymo in Koreatown (link).

‘Waymo self-driving car [manned] wakes London street at 4am after taking dead end route three times in a week’ (link). What are these safety drivers doing behind the wheel lol?

AVs/Humans behaving “goodly” :)

‘Street racing at 125+ mph on the I-10 in LA led to a crash, but the Waymo Driver saw it coming’ (link).

‘Amazon Prime Air celebrates six months of drone delivery in Oakland County. Zero mishaps’ (link).

‘Watch Waymo dodge a human pulling a blind unprotected turn’ (link).

‘Zoox gets stuck, Tesla FSD Assists’ (link).

‘Waymo displays “HELP CLOSE” on roof to ask passersby to shut door’ (link).

Neat Jobs

Multiple roles at Terawatt (link) via Titiaan Palazzi.

Product Manager, Pickup and Dropoff Systems at Waymo (link) via Chris Ludwick.

Principal AI Hardware Architect at Zoox (link) via Brian Mitchell.

Product Manager - AI Driver at Wayve (link) via Clément Chidiac.

Job Moves

Tobias Wessels: Helm.ai -> Torc Robotics (link).

Ratidzo Venton: Nuro -> Zoox (link).

Jiajing Dai: Meta -> Waymo (link).

Shout-outs

Big thanks to TDD readers at InDrive, Foretellix, Serve Robotics and to Richard R for referring new subscribers. If there’s someone you think would enjoy TDD, feel free to forward this email or use the referral button below, and we’ll make sure to shout out your company.

We’re now at 10,000+ subscribers! Interested in advertising with TDD? Check out our media kit here and reach out to us. Newsletter spots are currently sold out until July/August.

Refer a friend

Until next week :)

-Harry

The mobility company now operates in 11 US cities, covering more than 1,400 square miles of autonomous robotaxi service area. Across its network, Waymo has completed over 20 million trips, operates a fleet of roughly 3,000 robotaxis, and is targeting one million trips per week by the end of 2026. According to recent reporting from TechCrunch, Waymo is currently delivering around 500,000 paid robotaxi rides per week.

But while overall growth continues, new data from the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) suggests a clear slowdown in Waymo’s most established market.

California growth is slowing sharply

CPUC ride data indicates that trip growth in California decelerated significantly between December 2025 and March 2026. While total rides continue to rise, the pace of growth is weakening.

Monthly incremental gains in California weekly rides show a clear decline:

• January: +14,800 rides/week

• February: +6,400 rides/week

• March: +2,700 rides/week

This represents an 82% deceleration1 in the pace of growth from January to March.

Growth is shifting outside California

At the same time, Waymo’s expansion outside California is showing stronger momentum, suggesting that newer markets are contributing an increasing share of overall growth.

Non-California weekly rides2 moved as follows:

• January: -448

• February: +6,563

• March: +11,652

This marks a sharp acceleration in growth outside California, with monthly ride additions rising 78% from February to March.

Taken together, the data suggests Waymo’s expansion story may increasingly depend on scaling newer markets rather than deepening growth in its most mature ones.

Why is California slowing?

The slowdown raises several possible explanations, none of which are mutually exclusive.

Weakening demand

Waymo has made substantial market share strides in California, but it is possible that the company is facing challenges growing beyond the early adopter stage. As it shifts from a niche market to a broader audience, it may be struggling to sustain growth with the more price-sensitive and time-conscious average rideshare customer.

Fleet constraints

Robotaxi growth is ultimately limited by vehicle supply. If Waymo’s fleet of roughly 3,000 vehicles is being distributed across an expanding number of cities, capacity in mature markets like California could be stretched more thinly.

In this scenario, slower California growth would reflect supply constraints rather than weakening demand.

Expansion trade-offs

Every new city launch requires operational resources, vehicles and support infrastructure. As Waymo expands into more markets, it may be reallocating capacity away from maximising ride volume in existing cities.

Strategic focus shift

A further possibility is a deliberate shift toward geographic expansion, prioritising presence across more cities rather than maximising density in California alone.

However, this interpretation is not universally supported. Recent reporting from Electrek suggests a more nuanced picture, noting that Waymo appears to be “expanding within its existing cities rather than just rushing to plant flags in new ones.”

What is clear is that California’s role in Waymo’s overall growth picture may be changing. Rather than driving rapid expansion, it may now be entering a more mature phase where gains come incrementally rather than explosively.

Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, and Substack. Transcripts are also available by clicking on the “transcripts” button in the top right corner of this post on the app/web version. You can also access them from the email version by clicking here.

In today’s episode, I’m speaking with Marc Wimmershoff, Vice President of Autonomy Software at Zoox. Marc shares his long journey through the autonomous vehicle industry, what has kept him motivated through multiple hype cycles, and why he believes the industry is finally entering a more mature phase of real-world deployment.

We also dive into Marc’s role at Zoox and how the company is approaching autonomy differently with its purpose-built robotaxi platform. Marc explains the advantages and tradeoffs of designing a vehicle specifically for autonomous driving, how Zoox is thinking about scaling operations across cities, and why their technical approach stands out compared to other players in the industry. We also discuss the company’s remote operations process, the importance of teleguidance, and what it actually takes to operate autonomous vehicles safely at scale.

The conversation also explores the broader competitive landscape in autonomy, including whether there are advantages to being a later mover in the space, how the AV industry structure has evolved over the years, and where foundation models could have the biggest impact on autonomous driving in the near future. Finally, Marc shares what’s next for Zoox as the company continues expanding deployments and working toward larger scale commercialization.

Chapters

(00:00) Introduction to Marc Wimmershoff

(01:45) Marc’s background in the AV industry and what’s kept him going for so long

(02:35) What phase of the AV development/hype cycle are we in right now?

(03:22) How the structure of the AV industry has changed over the years

(05:36) Marc’s role at Zoox, and what his team does

(07:55) Marc’s advice/pitch for prospective Zoox employees

(10:07) Where Zoox is at right now with scaling up

(14:05) Where can you ride a Zoox? Current cities and rollout details

(17:00) How Zoox’s purpose-built robotaxis give them an advantage in autonomous deployments, and the philosophy behind them

(22:30) The biggest advantage of Zoox’s purpose-built robotaxi design

(23:00) The challenges with Zoox’s purpose-built robotaxi design

(26:54) The importance of Zoox’s remote operation process (teleguidance), and how it works

(31:57) Advantages of coming second in autonomy deployments

(34:24) Why Zoox’s technical approach stands out: The top-down vs. bottom-up approach

(38:10) How foundation models will improve Zoox’s autonomous driving in the near future

(42:30) What’s next for Marc and Zoox?

(44:20) Conclusions and final thoughts

Notes/Links:

• You can find Marc on LinkedIn.

• Leadership in Focus: Marc Wimmershoff, Vice President, Autonomy Software (link).

-Harry

Top Stories of the Week

Humanless big rig completes its first US freight run (link). Congrats to the Bot Auto team and highly recommend the linked article as it shares a lot of details and quotes from XD.

CEO and founder of Bot Auto, Xiaodi Hou, explained exactly how it played out. “Our autonomous truck departed Riggy’s Truck Parking in northeast Houston, headed to Hutchins, Texas, just south of Dallas. Departure was late at night as the shipper requested overnight service for this route. The truck ran 230 miles northbound on I-45, one of the busiest freight corridors in the country, navigated stop lights, side streets and frontage roads. There was no safety driver or observer, nor a remote operator.

Related: Inside Bot Auto with CEO Xiaodi Hou (link).

Other Stuff

‘San Francisco, we’re seeing more of you! 🌁 Our Zoox Explorers service has rolled into new neighborhoods. From North Beach to Noe Valley and more, we’re expanding our robotaxi’s footprint across the city’ (link).

Related: Leadership in Focus: Marc Wimmershoff, Vice President, Autonomy Software (link). Marc will also be joining us on the podcast this Monday, stay tuned!

Uber wants to turn its millions of drivers into a sensor grid for self-driving companies (link).

The company eventually wants to outfit its human drivers’ cars with sensors to soak up real-world data for autonomous vehicle (AV) companies — and potentially other companies training AI models on physical-world scenarios. Praveen Neppalli Naga, Uber’s chief technology officer, revealed the plan…describing it as a natural extension of a nascent program the company announced in late January called AV Labs.

This is a good idea, and companies like Nexar are already doing something similar with dashcams and rideshare drivers. But while the “millions of drivers” framing sounds good in a press quote, it doesn’t hold up operationally. Turning a decentralized base of independent drivers into a reliable, high-quality data network is messy and hard to standardize.

This idea makes a lot more sense with fleets. Uber already works with partners like Alto, Tower, VGM and many others that own and operate thousands of vehicles on the Uber network, so that would be a better starting point.

It also raises an interesting comparison with Lyft, which has a large (15,000) owned fleet via Flexdrive. If this model works, Lyft could be even better positioned to execute, and these companies have a history of borrowing from each other’s playbooks.

Related: Maps, data, and logistics: How Lyft’s deep roots in mobility can help AV players excel (link). Speak of the devil..

Designing Charging Hubs for Autonomous Fleets

We are excited to partner with Terawatt this week, one of the leading providers of charging infrastructure. To learn more about Terawatt’s network of AV charging hubs and track record of 99%+ uptime, reach out to Logan Szidik at lszidik@terawattinfrastructure.com

Terawatt will also be speaking at our next Urban Autonomy Summit on June 9 in Detroit! RSVP here.

Council Member Zo Qadri from Austin Texas: Disappointed Waymo didn’t show up to yesterday’s Public Safety & Mobility meeting. People deserve transparency when it comes to safety on our streets (link). The two empty Waymo chairs cracked me up.. But I do think Waymo has a a lot of room for improvement when it comes to dealing with first responders.

‘Both the democratic frontrunners for governor want to kill more people by reversing the autonomous vehicle rules that the CA DMV already approved’ (link).

Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi Sees ‘Trillion-Dollar’ Self-Driving Opportunity, Says Waymo Hasn’t Impacted Business (link).

When asked about Alphabet Inc.‘s Waymo, Khosrowshahi said that the sector wasn’t a “winner-take-all” market. “We certainly see Waymo moving very quickly as we are moving very quickly,” he said, pointing to Uber expanding self-driving services in over 15 markets by the end of 2026.

Related: ‘Uber Q1’26 earnings are out — we’re off to an exceptional start to 2026’ (link).

Goldman Sachs: Robotaxis Are Forecast to Become a $400 Billion Market in 2035 (link).

Even as AV ride costs fall—potentially to $1 or less per mile over the long term—the hardware enabling those economics would be also affordable enough for consumers to own personally. If autonomous vehicles eventually allow passengers to sleep during travel, many people may prefer ownership, possibly with a monthly subscription for remote driving assistance, Goldman Sachs Research suggests.

See How the Robotaxi Industry Is Taking Off Across the U.S. (link, no paywall).

Urban Autonomy Summit - Detroit

Our Urban Autonomy Summit, presented by Nexar, is heading to Detroit on June 9, and we’re excited to bring it to the Motor City! We’ve already brought together hundreds of operators, policymakers, and mobility leaders at past events in New York and San Francisco, and the conversations have been some of the best we’ve seen anywhere in the AV space.

The summit is a half-day event with panels, networking, and refreshments/light bites, all focused on what’s actually happening on the ground today with ridehailing, autonomous vehicle deployment, and urban transportation policy, and we’ll have some of the smartest operators and builders in the space joining us.

You can RSVP here and if you want a preview of what it’s like, check out our highlights clip from SF. Hope to see you there!

Nuro receives driverless testing permit ahead of Uber robotaxi service launch (link).

This latest driverless permit allows Nuro to test the Lucid vehicles without a human safety operator behind the wheel.

‘Exclusive: Rivian mulls making its own lidar sensors, possibly in partnership with Chinese firms’ (link). I love my Rivian, but I miss having Tesla Full Self-Driving (supervised). This would be an exciting move if Rivian can bring lower-cost lidar into future vehicles and close that gap.

I do have my eye on the Tesla Model Y L though (link via Justin G).

‘Waymo work, Waymo ride, Waymo nails. 💅’ (link).

“Don’t forget to take your Waymo sightseeing” (link).

What else we're reading/listening to

The Curbivore by : Detroit’s Existential Question: Will Autonomy Be Owned or On-Demand? (link).

Autonomous Delivery Reaches Age of Expansion (link). A summary of the “Future of Delivery” address by Zach Rash and Keller Rinaudo Cliffton, CEOs of Coco Robotics and Zipline respectively, at the just concluded Food On Demand Conference 2026.

Is the Uber x Waymo Partnership Coming to an End? (link). This might be our most popular post of the year, and it has sparked some discussions on Reddit and in my inbox/phone, that’s for sure :)

The ‘Waymo on Uber’ Experience, Feedback From a Power User - (link). Our latest podcast episode features Ethan McKanna, AV power user and creator of Robotaxi Tracker, where he shares insights into the real world Waymo on Uber experience in Austin and why the city has become a key location for AV deployments. We discuss what works well with the product today, the features still missing, and how pricing and availability compare to rider expectations. We also break down the differences between Waymo’s partnerships with Uber in Austin and Lyft in Nashville, what these models could mean for future markets, and Uber’s long-term role as an AV demand aggregator, among other topics.

Charge Talk by Diana Cwick: The Future of EVs: ZETA Research Director Corey Cantor on EV Policy, Charging (link).

AVs/Humans behaving badly

‘Got into my Waymo and I get a support call within 2 mins asking if I’m a minor and that their system detected me as a minor 😭’ (link).

Related: Waymo Is Trying to Crack Down on Solo Kids in Driverless Cars (link, no paywall).

‘Great white sharks spotted in the streets of Austin’ (link).

‘San Jose passenger claims a Waymo drove off with his luggage at the airport’ (link). Sorry but I’m team Waymo here. In my experience, if you open the trunk before the ride starts, it automatically opens upon arriving at your destination. Maybe the passenger hit ‘close trunk’ instead of open trunk.

‘A group of women found a knife sticking out of the back seat of a Waymo in Scottsdale’ (link).

AVs/Humans behaving “goodly” :)

‘This clip blows my mind. Waymo out here saving lives every day’ (link).

‘Disability activist shares her first experience using a Waymo as a wheelchair user’ (link).

Neat Jobs

Staff Autonomy Engineer - Localization at May Mobility (link) via Xiaoying J.

Manager, Materials Program Manager at Waymo (link) via Andressa Teixeira.

Job Moves

Ralf Wenzel: JOKR -> Coco Robotics (link).

Shout-outs

Big thanks to TDD readers at Turo, and to Sergio for referring new subscribers. If there’s someone you think would enjoy TDD, feel free to forward this email or use the referral button below, and we’ll make sure to shout out your company.

We’re now at 10,000+ subscribers! Interested in advertising with TDD? Check out our media kit here and reach out to us. Newsletter spots are currently sold out until July/August.

Refer a friend

Until next week :)

-Harry

Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, and Substack. Transcripts are also available by clicking on the “transcripts” button in the top right corner of this post on the app/web version. You can also access them from the email version by clicking here.

In today’s episode, I’m speaking with Ethan McKanna, an autonomous vehicle power user, industry observer, and the creator of Robotaxi Tracker. Ethan shares how he first got into AVs and what led him to build Robotaxi Tracker as a way to better understand and track real-world AV deployments.

We also dive into why Austin has quickly become one of the most important cities for autonomous vehicle rollouts, and what the Waymo on Uber experience actually looks like from a rider’s perspective. Ethan walks through what works well today, what’s missing from the product, and how pricing and availability compare to expectations.

We also explore the differences between Waymo’s partnerships with Uber in Austin and Lyft in Nashville, and whether these models are something Waymo is likely to replicate in other markets. The conversation touches on how the product could improve, and what features are still needed.

Finally, we zoom out to discuss Uber’s long-term role as an AV demand aggregator, the balance of power between platforms and autonomy companies, and what’s next for Robotaxi Tracker as the space continues to evolve.

Our Urban Autonomy Summit is heading to Detroit on June 9, and we’re excited to bring it to the Motor City. We’ve already brought together hundreds of operators, policymakers, and mobility leaders at past events in New York and San Francisco, and the conversations have been some of the best we’ve seen anywhere in the AV space. It’s a half-day event with panels, networking, and refreshments/light bites, all focused on what’s actually happening on the ground today with ridehailing, autonomous vehicle deployment, and urban transportation policy, and we’ll have some of the smartest operators and builders in the space joining us.

You can RSVP here and if you want a preview of what it’s like, check out our highlights clip from SF. Hope to see you there!

Chapters

(00:00) Introduction to Ethan McKanna and how he got into AVs

(04:51) The inspiration behind the creation of Robotaxi Tracker

(05:39) Austin gradually becoming the epicenter of AV deployments

(06:30) The Waymo on Uber user experience/partnership in Austin

(09:39) Missing features in the Waymo on Uber product in Austin

(11:51) The customer advantages of the Waymo on Uber product/partnership in Austin, and pricing insights

(13:57) How the Waymo-Uber partnership compares to the Waymo-Lyft partnership in Nashville

(15:20) Is Waymo likely to repeat their Austin partnership model with Uber in other cities?

(16:05) The Waymo-Lyft partnership model in Nashville

(19:17) Ways to improve the Waymo product in Austin

(22:30) Uber’s future as the AV demand aggregator

(27:22) Who needs who more? Uber vs. Waymo

(29:40) What’s next for Robotaxi Tracker?

(31:30) Conclusion and final thoughts

Designing Charging Hubs for Autonomous Fleets

We are excited to partner with Terawatt, one of the leading providers of charging infrastructure. To learn more about Terawatt’s network of AV charging hubs and track record of 99%+ uptime, reach out to Logan Szidik at lszidik@terawattinfrastructure.com

Notes/Links:

• You can find Ethan on LinkedIn and Twitter/X.

• Check out Robotaxi Tracker (link).

• Ethan’s speech at Ride AI 2026 (link).

-Harry

But Waymo isn’t Uber’s only AV partner. Uber has signed a long list of autonomous vehicle partners over the past few years:

Waymo is however, the only Uber AV partner generating meaningful, real-world rides at scale today. So when it comes to Uber’s short term AV strategy, it’s all about Waymo.

In other words, this partnership isn’t just important for Uber, it’s critical, and yet we are starting to see some real signs of strain.

Waymo has announced a wave of new market expansions without Uber, while also partnering with Uber’s biggest U.S. rival, Lyft, in Nashville. That’s not just diversification, it’s a signal that Waymo isn’t building around Uber as an exclusive demand partner.

You can see other signals as well. A recent “AV behaving badly” clip stood out less for the incident itself but more because it was shared by Uber’s CTO on X. The clip shows a Waymo overtaking a bus once the light changes from red to green, and the Uber executive inexplicably driving towards the Waymo and honking, while also filming with his phone (nice Rivian though!).

The Uber executive’s behavior was strange here but this clip stands out to me for a different reason. It is hard to recall a time in the past 10 years of covering this industry, where a C-suite executive publicly amplified criticism of a key partner like this. Typically, executives are highly media trained and tend to support partners publicly, especially one as important to Uber as Waymo. This suggests there may be some underlying tension.

Zoom out, and the issue is straightforward. Uber and Waymo are partners in a couple of markets, but in most places, they are direct competitors, and Waymo is increasingly taking share from both Uber and Lyft where it operates.

That tension is starting to show up in policy too. In New York City, where autonomous vehicle deployment is still restricted, Waymo has been pushing forward, while Uber has taken a more cautious stance, suggesting the city should slow down to get the policy right. Uber says this is about worker protections, accessibility, and political feasibility, but the competitive dynamics are hard to ignore.

You’re seeing a similar situation take place internationally. In London, one of the world’s most important ridehail markets, Uber is already partnered with Wayve, a homegrown autonomy player it’s backing heavily, and Baidu’s Apollo Go, a proven global operator, for upcoming robotaxi deployments. That means it won’t be reliant on Waymo for supply. At the same time, Waymo is entering London independently through its own app, setting up a market where Uber and Waymo are competitors from day one, not partners.

Put together, the incentives between Uber and Waymo are no longer fully aligned. Uber needs Waymo today to show it has a credible autonomous future, while Waymo is increasingly proving it can scale demand on its own or through multiple partners. Investors don’t seem to be giving Uber much credit for its broader AV strategy though.

Uber and Waymo’s Future

That said, there is still a role for aggregators. Uber and Lyft provide distribution, liquidity, and a familiar interface for riders, which matters, especially in newer or supply-constrained markets. But the current “Waymo on Uber” model is unlikely to be the end state.

We know from Obi’s data that Waymo riders are often willing to pay more and wait longer for a driverless ride, which makes them a high-value segment. Long term, it likely makes more sense for Waymo to capture that demand directly through its own app, while using platforms like Uber and Lyft more selectively to backfill demand.

That’s closer to the hybrid model we’re seeing with Lyft in Nashville, where customers can book a Waymo directly through the Waymo app, and eventually through Lyft under certain conditions, similar to the “Waymo on Uber” product.

But if that’s where things are heading, Waymo doesn’t need to pick a single partner. It can work with both Uber and Lyft (and maybe even new upstarts like Empower), even in the same markets, and optimize across them. We tell human drivers all the time to sign up for both platforms to maximize earnings and prioritize the best trips. Waymo could take a similar approach.

If Waymo wanted to take it a step further, it could even aggregate Uber and Lyft drivers onto its own platform. That would run counter to its current strategy, but it would shift the balance of power and give Waymo a way to solve for peak demand on its own without having to rely on Uber and Lyft to do the heavy lifting.

In summary, the partnership between Uber and Waymo isn’t over, but it’s starting to look less like a long-term strategic alliance and more like a transactional relationship, which is a much weaker foundation over time.

Readers, what do you think of Uber’s CTO’s tweet? Is he trying to send a message to Waymo, or is this just normal feedback on a partner’s product?

- Harry

Also, we just crossed 10,000 subscribers on The Driverless Digest! 🎉 Big thanks to everyone who’s been spreading the word — and if you haven’t yet, feel free to forward this newsletter to a friend and earn yourself a shout-out below.

Top Stories of the Week

Uber taps Hertz to clean, charge, and fix its Lucid Motors robotaxis (link). Hertz has had a few forays into the world of new mobility but this one seems a lot closer to its core competency of renting, cleaning and charging cars.

Uber’s forthcoming luxury robotaxi service with Lucid Motors and Nuro is getting a fourth partner: Hertz. The companies announced Thursday that Hertz will provide “day-to-day vehicle asset management, including charging, maintenance, repairs, cleaning, and depot staffing”. Hertz is handling this work through a newly established affiliate it’s calling Oro Mobility.

Other Stuff

China Suspends Autonomous Driving Permits After Baidu Outage (link, no paywall). We hold Waymo to a high standard here in the United States but it’s curious that Baidu has yet to comment on this situation.

The suspension of new licenses prevents self-driving companies from adding new robotaxis to their fleets, starting a new test project or expanding to a new city, the people said. It’s not clear how long the suspension will last, the people said.

California: New Autonomous Vehicle Regulations Strengthen Oversight and Enforcement, Authorize Trucks and Transit (link) via Emily Warren. California is rolling out what officials are calling the most comprehensive AV rules in the U.S., opening the door for testing and deployment of heavy duty autonomous trucks for the first time.

The rules also expand safety and oversight requirements across all AVs, allowing law enforcement to cite companies for violations, requiring a response to first responders within 30 seconds, and giving emergency officials the ability to geofence and clear AVs from active scenes.

Related: Gatik CEO - The business of autonomous freight is coming home (link).

Emergency First Responders Say Waymos Are Getting Worse (link, no paywall) via Jeffrey Tumlin.

“I believe the technology was deployed too quickly in too vast amounts, with hundreds of vehicles, when it wasn’t really ready,” one police official told federal regulators last month.

Rocsys unveils world’s first multi-bay hands-free charging solution to help robotaxi fleets scale, and raises $13M Series A extension (link) via .

Rocsys M1 enables hands-free, multi-bay charging for robotaxi fleets… The overhead rail-mounted system works across mixed EV fleets and any charger type, maximizing parking space and enabling uninterrupted, safe operation with up to 75% productivity increase from existing staff.

Autonomous Delivery Moves Into the Mainstream as Starship Technologies Passes 10 Million Deliveries (link).

What Waymo’s future in Austin may look like (link), an interview with Waymo’s senior director of product management, Shweta Shrivastava.

300 vehicles make up Waymo's Austin fleet, and they've traveled 10.7 million fully autonomous miles throughout the city.

MOIA America to expand into new US markets through strategic partnership with Beep, starting in Orlando (link).

Self-driving car service Waymo says it’s coming to Portland (link). They’ll begin manually driving in the city as they lay the groundwork for their future service.

Faster Data Off the Vehicle—Faster AI on the Road

Virewirx’s VX60 High Performance Wireless System has piqued our interest—that’s why we’re partnering with them this week to share their unique millimeter wave system built to move massive AV fleet data quickly and reliably. Reach out to Brian Lee at info@virewirx.com to learn more.

Musk sounds cautious tone on robotaxis amid slower-than-expected rollout (link).

Related: ‘At Tesla, rapid robotaxi scaling is always just around the corner’ (link).

Zoox starts first phase of Las Vegas airport rides (link).

The company says that during the initial phase, only Zoox employees will be able to take rides to and from the airport while it assesses safety and performance in the high-traffic transportation hub.

Why Cities Shouldn’t Fall For the Robotaxi Hype (link, no paywall).

Waymo still shut down in San Antonio a week after floodwaters swept robotaxi away (link, no paywall). Flooding is still a clear edge case for Waymo, but the bigger question is reliability. What happens when a city starts to rely on AVs and service can be paused for days or weeks at a time?

Waymo service was still unavailable in San Antonio on Tuesday afternoon in what appears to be the company’s longest service pause to date. It’s previously halted operations for up to a few days for Phoenix floods, Los Angeles protests and a San Francisco power outage.

A self-driving car is still a car (link).

Welcome our new robotaxi overlords (link, no paywall).

Robotaxi Services Put the ‘Auto’ in Autonomous (link). Cool deep dive on Zoox with CTO Jesse Levinson.

‘I visited Nashville earlier this month to tour our [Lyft’s] first purpose-built AV depot with local economic development leaders and colleagues from Lyft and Waymo’ (link). Lyft deserves credit here for leaning into the workforce transition, creating real roles for drivers in depot operations and fleet support as AVs scale, something competitors have been far less proactive about.

Tesla tries to throw Waymo under the bus (link).

This Is The Waymo IONIQ 5! Full Tour Of The New 6th Generation Robotaxi (link).

‘Very excited about our new campaign that recently launched in LA to promote the new Foo Fighters album. Honored that they are using Serve Robotics to get the word out and promote great music’ (link).

‘The most autonomous corner in Austin today lol’ (link).

Waymo called Austin 911 almost 100 times for people passed out in their vehicles (link).

ACT EXPO AV Guide

With ACT Expo 2026 coming up May 4–7, we’ve put together a list of interesting companies, events, and people to check out if you’re attending. I won’t be there this year, but there’s still a lot of cool stuff happening across the AV space.

🔌 Voltera will be at Booth 3717 and Meeting Room 4220 in the West Hall. Their CEO, Brett Hauser will be giving a keynote speech at the EV Charging Workshop on May 4, and their VP of Government and Utility Relations, Thomas Ashley, will also be speaking at the Automation in Action Workshop Pt. 2 on May 5 (link).

🔋 Rocsys will be displaying a visualization of their M1 charging system at Booth 3401 (link), and their Director of North American Markets, Erin Galiger will be speaking at the Automation in Action Workshop Pt. 2 on May 5 (link).

🚘 indiGOtech CEO, Will Graylin will be on stage at Expo Hall Theater South on May 6, and they will be showcasing at Booth 3109 (link).

⚡ Peter Cohen, VP and General Manager, AV and Rideshare at Terawatt will be speaking at the Automation in Action Workshop Pt. 2 on May 5, and they’ll also be exhibiting at Booth 4245, reach out to them on Linkedin to schedule a time to meet (link).

🤖 Doug Gould, Director, Operations Infrastructure and Strategic Partnerships at Zoox, will be speaking at the Expo Hall Theatre North on May 4.

• Aurora, Kodiak Robotics, and Volvo Autonomous Solutions will be exhibiting in West Hall, Booths 2717, 1743, and 2937D respectively.

• On the mainstage (May 5), there will be a host of speakers across the autonomous trucking and deployment space:

  • Ossa Fisher, President at Aurora.

  • Raquel Urtasun, Founder and CEO at Waabi. They’d also be showcasing the Volvo VNL Autonomous powered by the Waabi Driver on the main stage (link).

  • Don Burnette, CEO and Founder at Kodiak Robotics.

  • David Liu, CEO and Cofounder at PlusAI.

  • Peter Vaughan Schmidt, CEO at TORC Robotics.

• At the Automation in Action workshops (May 4–5), there will also be an impressive lineup of AV speakers:

  • Sasko Cuklev, Head of On-Road Solutions at Volvo Autonomous Solutions.

  • Lior Ron, COO at Waabi.

  • Paul DiLaura, Chief Commercial Officer at Gatik.

  • Frank Fratrik, Director of Safety at Kodiak Robotics.

  • Lauren Isaac, Head of Business Development and Strategic Partnerships, Infrastructure at Waymo.

• Presto’s Head of Fleet Partnerships, Madeline Zhu will be there (link).

• Monta’s Senior Demand Strategy Lead, Kevin Spangenberg will be attending (link). Darts sounds fun!

What else we’re reading/listening to

Energy Gang by Wood Mackenzie: Uber’s electric bet on electric vehicles. What does the rise of EVs and autonomous vehicles mean for the future of mobility? (link).

Why Are We Still Driving? (link, no paywall).

Curves Ahead by : We talked about it at Ford; Waymo did it (link). Congrats on the new Substack Matt!

Related: A Deep Dive into Waymo’s CPUC Data with Dr. Matthew Raifman (link).

: We Took a Waymo: The Financial Disruption Matches the Technological One - Part 1 (link).

AVs/Humans behaving badly

‘Scary Waymo moment in SF today - it overtook a Muni bus in the wrong lane at a signal, didn’t stop, and aggressively tried to squeeze between me and the bus’ (link) via Ethan McKanna. Notably, this tweet came from Uber’s CTO, and frankly, I'm surprised the post is still up. Public criticism like this is not a good look in the context of an active partnership and can signal some underlying tension.

Coincidentally, I’ll be speaking with Ethan on Monday’s TDD podcast for a broader discussion on the Uber x Waymo product and how it’s playing out in Austin.

Ran into an interesting issue with Waymo the other night (link).

‘SF rider presumably opened door while bus was passing by’ (link). Waymo should lock the door if it sees an oncoming vehicle that would make contact with an open door.

‘Waymo testing in London almost goes through police closed road’ (link).

‘Is this Mario Kart?’ (link).

Neat Jobs

Public Affairs Manager, Texas at Waymo (link) via Amanda Ventura.

Senior/Staff Software Engineer, ML Performance Optimization at Zoox (link) via Yuchuan Gou.

Field Engineer at Wayve (link) via Fuzail Ismail.

Lead Product Manager, Autonomy at Waabi (link) via Joseph Sunga.

Senior Program Manager, Autonomous Vehicles at Lyft/Flexdrive (link) via John Parks.

Job Moves

Julianne McGoldrick: Redwood Materials -> Wayve (link).

Garrett Brinker: Via -> Waymo (link).

Jess Ackerman: Voltera -> Zoox (link).

Garrett Blizzard: Tesla -> Waymo (link).

Tamsen Drew: SPUR -> Terawatt (link).

Shout-outs

Big thanks to TDD readers at City of Sacramento, and to Adam G for referring new subscribers. If there’s someone you think would enjoy TDD, feel free to forward this email or use the referral button below, and we’ll make sure to shout out your company.

We’re now at 10,000+ subscribers! Interested in advertising with TDD? Check out our media kit here and reach out to us. Newsletter spots are currently sold out until July/August.

Refer a friend

Until next week :)

-Harry

Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, and Substack. Transcripts are also available by clicking on the “transcripts” button in the top right corner of this post.

Join panelists at the just concluded Curbivore conference as they discuss what it takes to electrify, scale, and automate the vehicles of tomorrow, and the key systems supporting autonomy as deployments expand. This panel featured Aileen Zhong (Director of Government Affairs, Starship Technologies), Will Graylin (CEO & Chairman, indiGOtech), Nick Allen (Head of AV/Mobility Solutions, TaskUs), John McLean (Head of Market Development, Voltera), and Ed Walker (Senior Vice President, Hub International), and was moderated by Lloyd Lee (Reporter, Business Insider).

The conversation explores the infrastructure backbone enabling autonomy, from charging and fleet support to the human-in-the-loop systems that underpin AV safety today. It also covers key regulatory hurdles in cities, barriers to deploying sidewalk robots, and the most important metrics for early pilot programs. Panelists discuss how insurability evolves with scale, including the role of real-world versus simulated miles, how remote assistance may shift globally, and how risk and compliance frameworks change as drivers are removed. The discussion also touches on labor dynamics, the infrastructure versus scale “chicken-and-egg” challenge, public and regulatory perception, and which pieces of the ecosystem will have the biggest impact on AV growth in the coming years.

Curbivore 2026 brought together leaders across autonomy, delivery, and mobility in downtown Los Angeles for a full day of panels, firesides, exhibitions, and street food, focused on the ideas shaping the future of the curb and cities. You can check out the highlights clip here to get a feel for the event, and we’ve curated recordings of the panels, firesides, and speeches here. Also check out hundreds of our event photos here.

We’re bringing that same energy to our next Urban Autonomy Summit in Detroit on June 9. After that, we’ll be in Austin this fall and back in San Francisco in the winter for our next series of AV summits.

Chapters

(00:00) Introduction and overview

(03:45) The backbone that makes autonomy work and the infrastructure layer

(09:45) The human-in-the-loop layer behind AV safety

(11:04) Regulatory hurdles facing autonomous vehicle deployments in cities

(14:05) Barriers to deploying sidewalk robots in major cities

(15:37) The most critical metrics for AV pilot deployments

(19:03) Key requirements for autonomous fleets to ensure insurability at scale

(22:09) How physical vs. simulated miles impact AV fleet insurability

(23:23) How human-in-the-loop systems will evolve as AVs scale

(25:05) Overseas remote assistance for autonomous vehicles

(27:34) How risk and compliance dynamics change as drivers are removed

(30:34) Balancing labor concerns with scaling autonomy

(33:06) The “chicken and egg” problem of infrastructure vs. scaling

(36:20) Regulator and public perception of AVs today

(40:22) Which infrastructure pieces will most impact AV scaling, and how insurance may evolve

- Harry

Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, and Substack. Transcripts are also available by clicking on the “transcripts” button in the top right corner of this post.

Join panelists at the just concluded Curbivore conference as they discuss how autonomy has progressed over the last few years, the challenges the industry still faces, and what it will take to accelerate progress as AV services begin to scale. This panel featured Pat Tsen (Deputy Executive Director, California Public Utilities Commission), Phillip Pierce (City Policy Lead, Zoox), Jon Miller (Chief Business Officer, Nexar), Ashwini Anburajan (CEO, Obi), and Aaron Park (Chief Business Development Officer, Robotis), and was moderated by Alan Ohnsman (Senior Editor, Forbes).

The conversation explores how AV deployments are evolving in real-world environments, including Zoox’s current rollout and safety approach, the regulatory and operational hurdles that remain, and how agencies like the CPUC are handling approvals and data reporting. It also covers early pricing dynamics and consumer perception, how companies like Nexar support AV safety as services scale, the growing role of autonomous robotics and emerging use cases, and how industry players can better align to standardize testing, improve edge case readiness, and support safe, scalable growth.

Curbivore 2026 brought together leaders across autonomy, delivery, and mobility in downtown Los Angeles for a full day of panels, firesides, exhibitions, and street food, focused on the ideas shaping the future of the curb and cities. You can check out the highlights clip here to get a feel for the event, and we’ve curated recordings of the panels, firesides, and speeches here. Also check out hundreds of our event photos here.

We’re bringing that same energy to our next Urban Autonomy Summit in Detroit on June 9. After that, we’ll be in Austin this fall and back in San Francisco in the winter for our next series of AV summits.

Chapters

(00:00) Introduction, and overview

(06:25) Zoox’s current AV deployment position and the challenges so far

(08:51) Steps to a more harmonized system of approval for robotaxis (Federal and state), and the CPUC’s place in this system

(12:40) How the CPUC handles data reporting for AV companies in the testing phase, and what qualifies as an autonomous vehicle deployment

(14:40) Early pricing trends, and customer perception insights in current robotaxi deployments

(21:30) Zoox’s approach to safety and how they handle edge cases

(24:20) How Nexar supports AV companies and their safety cases as services begin to scale

(30:40) How the autonomous robotics market is developing and how their use cases are evolving.

(34:58) Standardizing AV testing and validation, and how to better prepare for edge cases

(42:30) Consumer perception of AVs/pricing and how it has evolved

(46:20) Projections for the future of autonomy

- Harry

Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, and Substack. Transcripts are also available by clicking on the “transcripts” button in the top right corner of this post.

Join Harry and Harrison Shih, Senior Director at DoorDash Labs, DoorDash for a fireside chat from the recently concluded Curbivore conference. They dive into DoorDash’s push into autonomy, with a focus on their latest delivery robot, DOT, and how it fits into a broader shift toward multimodal delivery. The conversation covers everything from the timing behind automation to how cities, consumers, and logistics networks are evolving alongside it.

They also unpack where DOT fits within DoorDash’s ecosystem, how the company collaborates with cities, and what real-world use cases are emerging today versus what’s coming next.

Curbivore 2026 brought together leaders across autonomy, delivery, and mobility in downtown Los Angeles for a full day of panels, firesides, exhibitions, and street food, focused on the ideas shaping the future of the curb and cities. You can check out the highlights clip here to get a feel for the event, and we’ve curated recordings of the panels, firesides, and speeches here. Also check out hundreds of our event photos here.

We’re bringing that same energy to our next Urban Autonomy Summit in Detroit on June 9. After that, we’ll be in Austin this fall and back in San Francisco in the winter for our next series of AV summits.

Chapters

(00:00) Introduction

(00:40) Harrison’s background and the philosophy behind DoorDash Labs

(02:29) DOT robot specs and design philosophy

(04:00) Why now is the right moment for delivery automation

(04:59) DOT’s role in a multimodal delivery ecosystem

(07:10) How DoorDash works with cities to automate delivery

(10:15) Problems autonomy solves in delivery

(12:32) Key use cases for DOT

(14:00) Consumer behavior trends in delivery

(15:44) The “other half” of the delivery equation, alongside autonomy

(19:37) How autonomous delivery evolves in cities over time

- Harry