Zoox Robotaxis Launching For Customers Later This Year
US closes preliminary investigation into Cruise, how can you hold $UBER and praise $TSLA's FSD at the same time?!, and what happens when you forget your phone in a Waymo
Top Stories of the Week
Robotaxis hit Las Vegas Strip, ahead of Amazon-owned Zoox’s first public roll out later this year (link). Selfishly, I can’t wait for a second autonomous player to hit the streets so we can take a break on the Waymo headlines. And based on the videos I’m seeing, it seems like Zoox is close.
My guess is that Zoox will roll out similar to Waymo: first party, in one market (SF), small beta, waiting list, and then open it up to everyone. If Zoox wants to catch up to Waymo though, their best bet may be through third party partnerships.
Waymo’s app has been shooting up the download charts but I don’t think things will be as easy for Zoox. Why would customers download another app when they already have Waymo, Uber and Lyft on their phone? I think Zoox’s path to scale will be through existing players like Uber and Lyft. Good news for those two, not so good news for Waymo.
How can you hold $UBER while simultaneously praising $TSLA’s FSD? (link) Jason believes there will be many winners if/when Tesla achieves Full Self Driving but I’m not so sure. Tesla is the bigger potential threat to Uber (than Waymo) since they already have millions of vehicles on the road, and with the flip of an ‘FSD switch’, they would have a fleet that rivals Uber in size and flexibility.
The latter is the key though since Uber has millions of drivers on the road but they’re not responsible for any of the vehicle expenses or down time. So Uber can scale up to capture the highest margins during NYE peak surge and scale down on Tuesday afternoon when things are slow. So tell me why Tesla would need Uber in this situation if they can do the exact same thing with Tesla owners? I know many people would do it just for the economics and when you throw in the Elon fan boys, you’ve got a lot of potential robotaxi owners ready to deploy their vehicles.
Why has Waymo been partnering with Uber and Lyft when they proved in San Francisco that they can win it all by themselves? (link)
This thread had a lot of good analysis but I think it boils down to two reasons:
Waymo’s roots are those of a tech company and they would like to push their driver technology into every vehicle in the world. But they don’t want to own, manage or operate the vehicles. The former is a high margin software business and the latter is a low margin, capital and operations intensive business.
Uber’s human drivers can handle all of the rides that Waymo can’t/won’t or doesn’t want (too far, not mapped yet, inclement weather, etc) so a passenger will always be able to open the app and get a ride (human or robot). Right now, there are loads of times where I open the Waymo app and the ETA is too far, or the Waymo can’t go where I want, or it will take too long because the freeway would be faster. That’s not a good customer experience over the long term.
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration closes preliminary investigation into General Motors' Cruise robotaxis (link).
Cool Rides
While in San Francisco, we had an opportunity to meet with Waymo and learn more about their self-driving technology (link).
Took a Waymo today and was blown away by the tech. Half hour drive with no driver and only $17 (link).
Maybe it’s because I live in the South and haven’t seen these yet, but I geeked way too hard for my first Waymo ride (link).
I’m sure a lot of you guys have already experienced this… But I just had my first driverless car experience with Waymo (link).
AVs and/or Humans behaving badly
Egged/trashed Waymo (link). You wouldn’t believe what rideshare passengers will do in the back of the car when there’s a human driver present. So I’m not shocked that passengers are behaving poorly and trashing vehicles when there’s just cameras watching. And it’s only going to get worse as Waymo scales. The company needs to start cracking down on this type of behavior.
Waymo Displays Updating Mid-Ride (link).
Other Stuff
Here’s what happens when you forget your phone in a Waymo (link). What stood out to me about this story is how complicated a simple lost phone is going to be for Waymo to handle in the future. A human driver, would grab the phone, put it aside and then return it later for a fee. There are hundreds of these types of situations that Waymo is going to have to figure out a solution for.
Robotaxis Are Taking Over SF. Scaling Up Will Be a Different Challenge (link). Eric Newcomer was one of my favorite ‘Uber reporters’ in the early days so it was cool to see this article pop up on his site this week. And it had some great insights:
“No matter what, someone has to take care of the cars,” said Josh Mohrer, a former Uber executive who managed the company’s first push into New York. Mohrer told us he’s skeptical of Waymo’s ability to scale, in no small part because of the messy-car issue. In contrast to a house-sharing platform like Airbnb, the turnover between Waymo users is minutes, not days, which doesn’t leave much room for cleaning, he noted.
Autonomous vehicle sensors don’t have to be a drag, find researchers (h/t Jonah Bliss from Curbivore).
Waymo completed 4 million robotaxi trips in 2024 (link).
Elon Musk misrepresents data that shows Tesla is still years away from unsupervised self-driving (link).
Waymo ‘passes’ Lyft. Will weather stop them in the north? (link). One of my favorite new Youtube channels, we also interviewed him on our live show recently.
China's Robotaxis Are A Nightmare Experience (link). Speaking of China, Li Auto CEO Li Xiang just shared his thoughts on the ongoing Lidar vs. Camera debate.
I believe that if Musk had ever driven on different highways in China deep in the night, he would have chosen to keep a lidar in the front as well.
Zoox driverless vehicle. No steering wheel or pedals (link).
Alphabet’s Waymo passengers in California from Aug. 2023 to Aug. 2024 (link).
Until next week.
-Harry
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Hey Harry, do you think that many Tesla owners are going to want to put their cars on the network when the "switch" is turned on? In my mind, if I own a Tesla I probably don't need the incremental income especially with the incremental headaches. Not to mention, the times the cars are in highest demand is when I need it myself. I'm a significant Uber shareholder, so I am trying to think through all the different angles... :) Thanks!