Analyzing Waymo’s Market Share Using Rider-Only Miles
Every quarter, Waymo updates its Safety Impact page with the latest Rider-Only (RO)1 miles driven across its operating cities: Los Angeles, San Francisco, Phoenix, and Austin2. Here’s the latest snapshot released in March 2026:
Waymo highlights this data to benchmark its performance against human drivers. And so far, the results have been fantastic. Compared to an average human driver over the same distance in its operating cities, Waymo reports significantly better safety outcomes: 92% fewer serious injury or worse crashes, 83% fewer crashes involving airbag deployment, and 82% fewer injury-causing crashes.
Historical Rider-Only Miles Data
Waymo doesn’t publish historical breakdowns of Rider-Only miles, so to get a better sense of how things are evolving, I’ve been tracking the data by city since mid-20243:
From the chart above, we can see that total rider-only miles have scaled to ~171M per quarter, roughly 5x growth since Q3 2024.
Looking at the data on a quarterly basis below, a few trends stand out: Phoenix continues to grow steadily, while San Francisco and Los Angeles have now caught up and surpassed Phoenix on a quarterly RO miles basis.
Total Rider-Only Miles
On an absolute basis, Phoenix is still in the lead, but Los Angeles and San Francisco are catching up.
It’s worth noting that all of this data reflects Rider-Only miles, not trips or revenue. Average trip length likely varies by city, so while miles are directionally correlated with usage, they’re not a perfect proxy. Still, the trends here are telling.
Market Share Over Time
Next, we can look at how each city’s market share of total RO miles is evolving:
Looking at both total share and quarterly changes, a few things stand out:
Phoenix’s share is declining every quarter, which is the biggest story here and a clear sign that growth is shifting to newer markets.
Los Angeles is steadily gaining share, with consistent quarter-over-quarter increases, although the rate of change appears to be slowing.
San Francisco is mostly flat over the last year, suggesting a more mature, stable market that’s growing but not expanding its relative footprint.
Austin is ramping from a small base, showing steady gains but still early and not yet a major contributor.
Quarter over Quarter Growth
Finally, when we take a look at quarter over quarter growth, every market has grown almost every single quarter. Austin shows the highest growth rates, but off a small base. Los Angeles is growing quickly and off a much more meaningful base, while San Francisco is more variable but still in a higher-growth phase. Phoenix’s slower growth reflects a more mature, scaled market.
Put together, the data shows a clear shift in where growth is happening. Phoenix still leads in total rider-only miles, but on a quarterly basis, Los Angeles and San Francisco are now generating more new miles. Austin is bringing up the rear, but showing high growth off a small base. It will be interesting to see how these numbers change over time, and as Waymo scales and provides more data on new markets like Atlanta, Nashville and beyond.
-Harry
Miles that Waymo has driven without a human driver.
Waymo does not provide data for Atlanta yet due to limited mileage, which means the results are not yet statistically significant.
Really good analysis. The only thing that caught my atention was the 70% market share of Waymo in PHX in jun 2024. If I get it correct, Waymo had 70% of all ride sharing in PHX? From where are you taking the total miles in every market? Or just an estimate?
Anyways, really helpful.
Nice writeup.
Do you have a sense of why Waymo doesn't report the Atlanta number even though it reported the Austin number even at a comparatively small mileage? (<1M)