Great stuff as always. Somewhat tangentially, in reference to the San Francisco comments, I tend to agree that robotaxis will see very strong initial growth (taking share from ridehail) and then sort of plateau... just as human ridehail has, in a way. Even if one believes SF is "ground zero" for mobility innovation (at least outside China), it is amazing to me how, after many years now of ridehail growth, residents there have not yet given up personal car ownership in any meaningful way. US Census data on "vehicles available per household" in SF-Oakland-Fremont metro shows 1.69 cars in 2005 (pre-ridehail), then 1.73 in 2015 (as ridehail started gaining steam), and then 1.75 in 2022 (latest government data available). It looks like ridehail (and I will guess AV ridehail) just become one more mode of travel available to Americans, rather than one mode displacing all the others. Thus it makes sense for OEMs to want to license AV tech from Waymo or whomever... not necessarily to equip a bigger ridehail fleet, but to provide PERSONALLY-OWNED AVs. I bet when Hertz was founded in 1918 someone said "Well that is the end of personal car ownership: why own a car when I can rent one!" (grin) People just like owning cars. I remain stunned that 1 in 4 households in Manhattan, of all places, still owns a car.
I think a big reason for that plateau for Rideshare providers, though is the high cost. And you also have companies who are clearly more focused on increasing the take rate and current margins then a longer-term vision like that, which is totally fair.
but the whole point of autonomous vehicles is to be cheaper than human drivers, so they may have some potential to dig into personal vehicle ownership. But as I’ve mentioned in the past, the real inflection point may be in 5 to 10 years when all of the teenagers are no longer getting licenses.
Broadly speaking I agree, especially your point on how long it will take. And on the cost. But drivers license data shows that while people are DELAYING getting their licenses, by the time they are 30 or so they give in and get it. And then (because America is fixated on the youth) we forget that on the other end of the age spectrum people are living longer and driving longer. No more retire at 65 play golf for 2 years and then die of a heart attack. Thus in 2010 there were 210 licenses and 309 mm people (68%); in 2020 228 and 332 (69%), and the estimates for 2025 are 243 and 347: 70%. No decline I can see, but of course things may change!
Great stuff as always. Somewhat tangentially, in reference to the San Francisco comments, I tend to agree that robotaxis will see very strong initial growth (taking share from ridehail) and then sort of plateau... just as human ridehail has, in a way. Even if one believes SF is "ground zero" for mobility innovation (at least outside China), it is amazing to me how, after many years now of ridehail growth, residents there have not yet given up personal car ownership in any meaningful way. US Census data on "vehicles available per household" in SF-Oakland-Fremont metro shows 1.69 cars in 2005 (pre-ridehail), then 1.73 in 2015 (as ridehail started gaining steam), and then 1.75 in 2022 (latest government data available). It looks like ridehail (and I will guess AV ridehail) just become one more mode of travel available to Americans, rather than one mode displacing all the others. Thus it makes sense for OEMs to want to license AV tech from Waymo or whomever... not necessarily to equip a bigger ridehail fleet, but to provide PERSONALLY-OWNED AVs. I bet when Hertz was founded in 1918 someone said "Well that is the end of personal car ownership: why own a car when I can rent one!" (grin) People just like owning cars. I remain stunned that 1 in 4 households in Manhattan, of all places, still owns a car.
I think a big reason for that plateau for Rideshare providers, though is the high cost. And you also have companies who are clearly more focused on increasing the take rate and current margins then a longer-term vision like that, which is totally fair.
but the whole point of autonomous vehicles is to be cheaper than human drivers, so they may have some potential to dig into personal vehicle ownership. But as I’ve mentioned in the past, the real inflection point may be in 5 to 10 years when all of the teenagers are no longer getting licenses.
Broadly speaking I agree, especially your point on how long it will take. And on the cost. But drivers license data shows that while people are DELAYING getting their licenses, by the time they are 30 or so they give in and get it. And then (because America is fixated on the youth) we forget that on the other end of the age spectrum people are living longer and driving longer. No more retire at 65 play golf for 2 years and then die of a heart attack. Thus in 2010 there were 210 licenses and 309 mm people (68%); in 2020 228 and 332 (69%), and the estimates for 2025 are 243 and 347: 70%. No decline I can see, but of course things may change!