New Data Shows AVs Are Cutting Into Rideshare Driver Pay
A new Gridwise report analyzed driver pay in AV cities vs non AV cities over the past year.
This is a guest post from Sergio Avedian, Senior Contributor at The Rideshare Guy.
Gridwise Analytics just released a new report on the impact of autonomous vehicles (AVs) that caught my eye since it takes an in-depth look at how AVs are impacting human driver earnings. As anyone who’s been in the rideshare industry for a while will tell you, earnings are the number one thing that drivers care about.
Gridwise’s report looks at how the commercial operation of AVs across major U.S. cities, specifically San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, and Phoenix has affected rideshare drivers and platform economics. The study examines data spanning one full year and benchmarks local trends against national averages to reveal subtle yet meaningful shifts.
Let’s dive in.
1. Earnings on the Decline Especially in AV Markets
Human drivers in markets where autonomous vehicles are in play are now earning less. Hourly wages have dropped year-over-year (July 2024 to July 2025) across all four cities: 6.9% in San Francisco, 5.3% in Austin, 4.7% in Los Angeles, and 3.8% in Phoenix. Meanwhile, the broader national rideshare market actually saw a slight uptick in hourly pay of 1.0%.
Trip-based pay showed similar weakness. Drivers in three of the four cities experienced per-trip pay declines, reinforcing the decline in their earnings.
2. Incentives are Being Reduced Heavily in Some AV Cities
TNCs like Uber and Lyft are continuing to pull back on driver bonuses and other incentives. This makes sense in a high supply (human drivers) environment. More drivers means the companies can pay drivers less. More supply in the form of AVs has only accelerated that trend.
Nationwide, per-trip incentive spending plunged 47.1%, but this was even more pronounced in certain AV-active cities: LA and Phoenix had over a 64% decline, while Austin's drop was milder at around 33% and actually below the national average. San Francisco mirrored the national average.
3. Utilization Rates Present a Mixed Picture
Driver utilization rates (the percentage of time spent with passengers vs. waiting) also dipped in two AV markets: down 8.6% in LA and 3.1% in San Francisco. Nationwide utilization dropped 2.9%, but Austin and Phoenix bucked the trend with modest positive gains of 1.3% and 1.4%, respectively.
What Does This Mean?
Yes, AVs are having an impact, but it is gradual and localized. Human drivers in cities where AVs are operating are seeing tangible reductions in pay and incentives, suggesting that autonomous fleets are starting to influence platform economics.
However, the shift is not uniform nor total. Some markets are more resilient than others (e.g., Austin, Phoenix), where utilization remains steady or even slightly improved. But let’s keep in mind that only 100 Waymos are deployed in Austin while SF and LA have significantly more.
National averages don’t yet reflect the AV effect since Waymo is commercially available only in a few major cities and geofenced areas. But Waymo exclusively on the Uber platform has just launched in Atlanta and started testing in Boston as well as NYC.
Looking Ahead
Scaling of AV fleets: We should expect that if AV deployment expands to more cities or urban areas, disruptions could deepen, potentially widening the pay and utilization gaps even further. It’s surprising that AVs can have an impact like this despite being at relatively small fleet sizes (in the hundreds of vehicles in any given city). Imagine what it will be like when there are thousands.
Platform strategies: Rideshare companies might push back via promotions, efficiency measures, or revising pricing structures to sustain driver supply and demand.
Driver responses: Human drivers may adapt by multi-apping (working across multiple platforms) or shifting to delivery/gig platforms less affected by AV entry. We recently posted this article on The Rideshare Guy about how drivers can lessen the pain of AV proliferation in their cities.
Consumer behavior: Though not a central theme of this specific report, rising rideshare costs nationally up ~7.2% leading to a median fare of $15.99 are already triggering pushback, with over 72% of consumers saying they’d reduce or stop using rideshare if fares climb further.
What Human Drivers are Saying About AVs
We recently ran an informal survey on our YouTube channel that gathered over 1,000 responses from our driver community, and the results were surprising. The central question asked whether drivers were concerned about the expansion of autonomous vehicles (AVs) into multiple major U.S. cities, a topic that has been gaining momentum over the past year. A third of respondents indicated that they are worried about how AVs could affect their livelihoods.
Their concerns focused on declining trip volume, reduced incentives, and the possibility that human drivers may eventually be pushed aside in favor of driverless fleets. Others, however, expressed a more cautious optimism, noting that large-scale AV adoption still faces hurdles such as regulation, cost, safety, and rider trust, which could slow down or limit their expansion. What stood out most is that drivers are paying close attention to these developments and want to be part of the conversation about the future of rideshare.
The survey provides a valuable snapshot of driver sentiment, highlighting both the anxiety and resilience within the community as the industry heads toward a new era of technological disruption.
Here are some comments that stood out:
What Else are Drivers Saying?
In addition to our survey, we spoke directly with several veteran drivers in the Austin area to get a deeper sense of how autonomous vehicles are affecting their day-to-day earnings. Each driver we interviewed unequivocally voiced concerns over declining utilization rates, fewer trip offers, and most importantly, a steep year-over-year drop in income. These weren’t new drivers unfamiliar with seasonal fluctuations, they were experienced veterans who factored in historical patterns before drawing conclusions.
What stood out was the consistency in their stories: almost all pointed to the arrival of Waymo as a turning point. Since AVs began operating in Austin, some drivers reported year-over-year earnings declines of 30–40%, a staggering reduction that far outpaces normal seasonal variability.
Our Take
While it’s still early to measure the full impact of AVs across every U.S. market, Austin provides a telling case study. Companies like Uber and Lyft tend to focus solely on the data, and the data from Gridwise’s report is showing a small decline in earnings in most AV cities. But when you talk to real drivers, they tell a different story. I’ve always felt that perception can be more important than reality. So if drivers feel like they are earning way less, there’s clearly a large disconnect.
Autonomous vehicles are beginning to make their mark on the rideshare industry, but the disruption is still in its early stages and geographically limited. At present, AV operations are concentrated in a handful of cities where companies such as Waymo and Tesla have secured regulatory approval and built the infrastructure to run pilot programs. These markets are serving as test beds, showing both the potential and the limitations of driverless technology.
For drivers in those cities, the impact is already noticeable. As AV fleets expand, traditional drivers are seeing reduced demand, which in turn leads to lower wages and diminished incentives. The presence of driverless vehicles increases competition and gives rideshare companies leverage to adjust pay structures, often at the expense of human drivers.
However, on a broader scale, the rideshare industry remains largely insulated. Nationwide, human drivers still carry the overwhelming majority of trips, and passenger trust in AVs is still building. Issues such as cost of deployment, safety concerns, and regulatory hurdles mean that widespread adoption is likely years away. For now, while AVs are a growing force, their disruption is more symbolic than systemic, signaling the direction the industry is heading rather than its current reality.
- Sergio