I always thought the premise of Uber was a better taxi service, wasn’t it?
It’s really not going to be difficult to shift people from having a car to no car, especially in large cities and also younger people will be early adopters. Everyone I’ve taken on their first Waymo in LA has loved it and this appears to be a common experience.
For example, I live near a hotel and foreigners and out of towners use Waymo and it does the pickup in front of my place. I have now seen many hundreds of people take their first ride - they are quite excited about it, video recording it/and or posting it to social media, and regularly talking to the Waymo (“thanks Waymo!”) and all smiles!
I understand your argument and that sentiment is definitely what you hear from people who have not been in a new Tesla (e.g FSD13 on HW4 — new model 3 or Y) or a Waymo, but 2026 is going to be a huge year IMHO for this.
In LA we have the next gen Waymos being tested, Zoox (Amazon’s solution) is testing now and i’m seeing multiple test cars a day now… and VW claims they will launch an EV robotaxi in LA in 2026. So those plus Tesla and we will have 4 services operational in LA, the largest population county in the US. And Tesla claims to be accessible to half the population soon. Even just the top 20 metro areas account for something like 1/3 of the US population.
Will people in SF and LA not have cars if they can get a robotax for <$1/mile, or 50 cents or even cheaper? Yeah, 100% But i agree it’s not a black or white situation. It’s more like the younger people won’t grow up with their own car - and won’t buy one. Older people will stop buying cars, but that will take time and of course large metro areas will have a very different mindset vs. the cities, as they do with many things.
In larger metro areas, where people will be able to get a ride quickly and cheaply, this will be extremely common. Also parents are 100% on board with having their kids in a robotaxi vs. a human driver…
Ross is totally wrong about who will take rideshare and how often. If you can get a Waymo or other robot taxi for under $1/mile, and eventually down to much cheaper as Elon has said he wants to do, that will be the END of personal ownership. yes it will start in the big cities, but most people haven't taken the 5 minutes to figure out their actual cost per mile for driving (car insurance, tickets, car washes, car payments, parking fees, valet fees, accidents, maintenance, tires, etc.) - they will realize they pay far more than that. Also there's a huge FREEDOM and FLEXIBILITY issue when you don't have to worry about driving and you become a lot more flexible and fun in your approach to going places.
That was the promise of Uber but it never materialized since Americans love their cars and they are a sunk cost. So even though it now costs over $12,000 per year on average to own a car, it's hard to get people to shift from having a car to no car.
Waymo/Tesla 'may' change that if they can get the cost per mile much lower, but I still think it will be an uphill battle. You need a suite of mobility services to replace your car (e-bike, good car-sharing for long/weekend trips, etc). And at that point, I think it may be more likely that AV tech goes into higher end vehicles and then you get your own personal AV.
I always thought the premise of Uber was a better taxi service, wasn’t it?
It’s really not going to be difficult to shift people from having a car to no car, especially in large cities and also younger people will be early adopters. Everyone I’ve taken on their first Waymo in LA has loved it and this appears to be a common experience.
For example, I live near a hotel and foreigners and out of towners use Waymo and it does the pickup in front of my place. I have now seen many hundreds of people take their first ride - they are quite excited about it, video recording it/and or posting it to social media, and regularly talking to the Waymo (“thanks Waymo!”) and all smiles!
I understand your argument and that sentiment is definitely what you hear from people who have not been in a new Tesla (e.g FSD13 on HW4 — new model 3 or Y) or a Waymo, but 2026 is going to be a huge year IMHO for this.
In LA we have the next gen Waymos being tested, Zoox (Amazon’s solution) is testing now and i’m seeing multiple test cars a day now… and VW claims they will launch an EV robotaxi in LA in 2026. So those plus Tesla and we will have 4 services operational in LA, the largest population county in the US. And Tesla claims to be accessible to half the population soon. Even just the top 20 metro areas account for something like 1/3 of the US population.
Will people in SF and LA not have cars if they can get a robotax for <$1/mile, or 50 cents or even cheaper? Yeah, 100% But i agree it’s not a black or white situation. It’s more like the younger people won’t grow up with their own car - and won’t buy one. Older people will stop buying cars, but that will take time and of course large metro areas will have a very different mindset vs. the cities, as they do with many things.
In larger metro areas, where people will be able to get a ride quickly and cheaply, this will be extremely common. Also parents are 100% on board with having their kids in a robotaxi vs. a human driver…
Absolutely fascinating conversation. Tks.
Really great podcast Harry! Keep on bringing this great conversations to us 🙏
Ross is totally wrong about who will take rideshare and how often. If you can get a Waymo or other robot taxi for under $1/mile, and eventually down to much cheaper as Elon has said he wants to do, that will be the END of personal ownership. yes it will start in the big cities, but most people haven't taken the 5 minutes to figure out their actual cost per mile for driving (car insurance, tickets, car washes, car payments, parking fees, valet fees, accidents, maintenance, tires, etc.) - they will realize they pay far more than that. Also there's a huge FREEDOM and FLEXIBILITY issue when you don't have to worry about driving and you become a lot more flexible and fun in your approach to going places.
That was the promise of Uber but it never materialized since Americans love their cars and they are a sunk cost. So even though it now costs over $12,000 per year on average to own a car, it's hard to get people to shift from having a car to no car.
Waymo/Tesla 'may' change that if they can get the cost per mile much lower, but I still think it will be an uphill battle. You need a suite of mobility services to replace your car (e-bike, good car-sharing for long/weekend trips, etc). And at that point, I think it may be more likely that AV tech goes into higher end vehicles and then you get your own personal AV.