Interesting, to say the least. One way to test the "running out of cars" hypothesis is to see if wait times are climbing in LA and SF? The robotaxi tracker website shows the Waymo LA fleet at about 700 cars and SF at about 1000, with wait times at 6 minutes and 19 (!) respectively, right now, 4 PM Eastern. But we'd have to see if wait times are climbing over X weeks or months, and I do not know how to look back in time to see the trend.
My take on this is nuanced. Lots of cars plated in California. Waymo is authorized all over the state for extensive testing. My guess is they have moved lots of cars to new testing areas in the state including the East Bay, LA into Orange County, Sacramento and maybe even San Diego. No replating required and a big service area boost will be possible. When the Q1 safety report comes out we will have definitive statistics on the daily miles in established service areas like Bay and LA. The growth in Q4 QoverQ daily miles was CRAZY (65% in SF & 35% in LA)
Interesting, to say the least. One way to test the "running out of cars" hypothesis is to see if wait times are climbing in LA and SF? The robotaxi tracker website shows the Waymo LA fleet at about 700 cars and SF at about 1000, with wait times at 6 minutes and 19 (!) respectively, right now, 4 PM Eastern. But we'd have to see if wait times are climbing over X weeks or months, and I do not know how to look back in time to see the trend.
For me its 100% related with them being car constraint.
Yes I think that is the number one reason. Ojais still haven't launched after 1-2 years of testing.. 🤔
My take on this is nuanced. Lots of cars plated in California. Waymo is authorized all over the state for extensive testing. My guess is they have moved lots of cars to new testing areas in the state including the East Bay, LA into Orange County, Sacramento and maybe even San Diego. No replating required and a big service area boost will be possible. When the Q1 safety report comes out we will have definitive statistics on the daily miles in established service areas like Bay and LA. The growth in Q4 QoverQ daily miles was CRAZY (65% in SF & 35% in LA)