Uber, Nuro and Lucid Ink Massive Robotaxi Partnership
Waymo and Tesla battle over operating turf in Austin, Uber also links up with Apollo Go to deploy AVs, and Waymo celebrates 100 million miles!
Hey, it’s Harry! Welcome to the 124 new subscribers who have signed up since our last newsletter. I’m excited to have you join the 2,080 AV enthusiasts, executives, and industry professionals who are already on board. This was a big week so let’s get into it..
Top Stories of the Week
Uber to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in Lucid and Nuro in a massive robotaxi deal (link). The three companies will also work to deploy “20,000 or more” robotaxis in the US over the next six years bringing Uber’s total investment to over $2 billion. The Lucid Gravity SUVs will be powered by Nuro’s self-driving tech on Uber, with launches expected late next year in a major U.S. city.
Uber’s $300 million investment in Lucid comes at a critical juncture for the company considering they lost close to $3 billion last year. And at the end of the trading day Thursday, Lucid’s stock was up over 36%.
Nuro’s President Dave Ferguson also said that Uber will invest “significantly more than that [$300 million]” in the company, but declined to give an exact number.
In my opinion, the biggest part of this deal went under the radar though and wasn’t even mentioned in Uber’s official statement or any of the mainstream articles I read. From Uber’s 8-K (h/t Ed Ludlow), we can see that Uber's commitment to buy 20,000 Gravitys is actually a "minimum" purchase order and contractual. And it is completely separate from the $300 million investment Uber is making into Lucid (and Nuro). This is a big deal since a lot of times, these vehicle agreements have no teeth.
Uber may have some outs on the deal since the guarantee is ‘conditioned on Lucid’s ability to meet certain volume and other requirements’. But if they do purchase 20,000 vehicles, that would be a massive fleet considering that Waymo only has 1,500 vehicles right now.
Similar to the Jaguar I-Pace, the Lucid Gravity is also a premium vehicle starting at $80,000. So doing the math: 20,000 cars × $80,000 = $1.6B just for the vehicles alone. Although I have to imagine Uber will be getting a nice discount since the deal would represent 1/4 of Lucid’s annual production volume1. Add in the AV sensors and all the capex and opex required to run fleet operations, and we could be talking hundreds of millions of dollars more. In total, this deal could add up to over $2 billion over time (if not significantly more).
The real question mark in my mind is whether an $80,000 robotaxi will be profitable in the future when other companies like Waymo are looking to roll out much cheaper vehicles likes the Hyundai Ioniq and Zeekr. I suppose this could be Uber’s high end AV option but 20,000 vehicles seems like a lot of high end vehicles and a big risk to take. I don’t see a world where Uber will profitably run 20,000 high end SUVs but I’m also guessing their lawyers set up favorable terms in case they change their mind.
So that leaves Nuro, the company that claims their tech is ‘proven L4 autonomy’, but has never done a single paid driverless ride. I don’t doubt that they can get there since Waymo, Apollo Go and others have figured it out but obviously the whole deal hinges on a working AV tech stack from them. I do hope they can figure it out and obviously Uber feels they have a great shot.
Remember, Uber benefits from a fragmented AV market but right now, they’ve only got Waymo. So it makes sense that they continue to invest in companies like Wayve and Nuro. Especially since the technology for those two companies can be applied to different OEMs.
Ultimately, I think Uber will be happy to pay for Lucid vehicles if they can get commercial ready AV tech from Nuro. If they can’t, they’re only out $600 million and that’s a small price to pay to stay relevant in the robotaxi game.
Baidu and Uber Join Forces to Accelerate Autonomous Vehicle Deployment (link). Baidu has agreed to deploy thousands of Apollo Go robotaxis on the Uber platform across multiple global markets outside the U.S and Mainland China. The first deployments will happen in Asia and the Middle East later this year.
Would have been nice to get a heads up on this announcement but the timing still worked out well since we just released our interview with Helen Pan, Apollo Go’s General Manager (link). We chatted about Baidu’s Apollo Go robotaxi service, its technology, safety features, and the cost efficiency of their latest-generation vehicle, the RT6, which has an all-in cost of just $30,000.
Tesla unveils its new Austin robotaxi geofence, in a shape that has now gone viral (link). Waymo responded three days later by expanding their Austin service area from 37 square miles to 90 square miles (link).
The map below shows Waymo’s new service area and Tesla’s beta testing area. The smaller dark blue region is Waymo’s old operating area. And yes, the penis shaped portion is Tesla’s actual beta testing area 🤦♂️
On a more serious note, Waymo has expanded the service area for SF, LA and now Austin but they still don’t operate on freeways, and I’m beginning to wonder if there’s a problem..
Cool Rides
My Test-Drive in a Waabi Driverless Big Rig (link, no paywall).
‘On a recent trip to Los Angeles to facilitate a client engagement, I had my first experience riding in a self-driving car. No driver. Just me and Waymo.’ (link).
AVs/Humans behaving badly
Tesla influencer claims his Robotaxi didn’t stop for a train crossing signal and lowered gates (link).
My last Waymo was dirty. Have you noticed a decline in the quality of vehicles lately? (link). I got two Waymos in a row that had issues. Third one was back to expectations. I’m worried that this is going to be a problem for Waymo in the future, especially as they expand to mass market. You would not believe the things people do in the backseat of an Uber when there’s a human driver. Just wait until there’s no driver..
Still seeing high ETAs on Waymo in LA during peak times… Waymo must’ve noticed though, as they pushed a $5 credit automatically the next morning (link). I also got $5 for reporting my ‘sandy Waymo’ above.
Apparently Waymo calls the cops if you don't vacate the vehicle in a timely manner (link).
Waymo vs Tesla Robotaxi (link). Additional context provided indicates the Tesla was in the wrong here and the Waymo had the right of way.
Other Stuff
The Waymo Driver has officially driven 100 million fully autonomous miles on public roads (link)2.
Pony.ai CEO James Peng tells CNBC on July 14: Gen-7 Robotaxi now in mass production, road testing in Guangzhou & Shenzhen (link). Meanwhile, Short-seller Grizzly Research published a scathing report about them (link).
Former Uber CEO, Travis Kalanick discusses Pony AI, autonomy and automation on the All-In podcast (link).
Bay Area politician eviscerates Musk's 'uniquely' bad California robotaxi plans (link).
‘Waymo launch in Atlanta is early but tracking similar to LA through June, and Austin continues to ramp faster than other markets with $UBER support’ (link). LA and SF had big drops due to the riots and pausing of service last month but the Atlanta data did surprise me. It’s still too early to draw conclusions but I would have expected ATL to be on pace with ATX. Both places are ‘Waymo on Uber’ cities so if Waymo brought the same number of vehicles as Austin (100), we would expect similar results.
D.C. Councilmember Kenyan R. McDuffie introduced a bill that would allow fully self-driving cars to operate in the city (h/t Martin Austermuhle). Waymo resumed testing in Washington D.C. back in January, with safety drivers behind the wheel. If the bill goes through, they'll be cleared to test without them, paving the way for the official launch later in 2026.
Volkswagen taps Bee Maps for robotaxi mapping data (link).
I mean I’m grateful to not be rushed but… (link).
A Holistic Approach to AV Regulation (link).
Autonomy, Territory, Generality - The Ingredients Of A Real Robotaxi (link, no paywall).
This is how Waymo’s LiDAR sensors look under an infrared camera (link).
Trump nominates a Tesla critic to lead NHTSA (link).
What else we're reading
Human Driven by
: Detroit Party, TBPN, NIVC, AutonoRun (link).Arbitrage by
: Wall Street Investors Enter Single Family Rentals (link).Neat Jobs
Senior Product Designer - Autonomous Mobility & Delivery at Uber (link) via Payam Tabrizian.
Shout-outs
Big thanks to TDD readers Sam S and Marko C for referring new subscribers. If there's someone you think would enjoy TDD, just forward this email to them or use the referral button below.
Until next week.
-Harry
Far less Waymo vehicles seem to have been deployed in ATL vs ATX, which would explain the trend.
I’ve requested over 10 Ubers in ATL since launch and haven’t managed to get a Waymo. Whereas 3 out of 4 of my requests in ATX a few months ago were assigned to Waymo.