Our Drivers Will Own AVs’: Lyft’s Bet “On An Autonomous Future (link). I agree with Bird that we will see a hybrid model of AVs and human drivers for many years to come. But I’m not sold on the idea of drivers owning AVs. It sounds good in theory, but most drivers are living paycheck to paycheck, and don’t have the money to invest in an expensive AV” - think the logic here is more “drivers need a car anyway, they’ll probably buy an AV in the future since its wayy more passive and allows them to also do all the other things they need a car for”
Right but personal robotaxis will likely come in at the high end, and most drivers can't afford high end cars. Most of the Uber Black drivers actually rent through a fleet owner because of the high barrier to entry.
So I think it's more likely that the fleet owners will own AVs, not the actual drivers.
True, true, but I'd be fascinated by how this intersects with the financial markets here - you might be able to borrow money at a better rate to own an AV since the risk profile is lower and the data is better.
fair, there may definitely be an arbitrage there, but it won’t be had by existing Rideshare drivers since they are typically low to no credit. The difference now is that you could do this but then you have to actually drive yourself, or rent your car to someone, which is also a huge hassle. I definitely like the idea of buying and owning AV and sticking it onto the ridehail network though.
I think there'd be scope here for an expanded franchising model honestly. People love the idea of passive income and this is a much easier model than say vending machines or owning an entire McDonalds. I suspect what you'd see is a couple of big fleet operators who own swathes of AVs and then an entire set of smaller franchisees who individually borrow money and run a few AVs on the market.
Are you following Zeekr at all? Looking more and more like an important supply chain puzzle piece. Also, what's your take on the future of auto insurance?
And on insurance, I don't think there's much here tbh since Waymos at least are pretty safe, so way fewer accidents. So wouldn't that mean less business for insurance companies as AVs proliferate. Obviously when there is an accident, the PI attorneys will come sprinting after Waymo but no different than how it is today for Uber dealing with those guys.
My bet is that the primary auto carrier business will either disappear or change completely. My play is that the auto makers will contract straight with the reinsurance industry and the carriers will exit the market. Where's the liability play when the accidents plummet by +90%?
Yes I am really not sure what's taking so long to get these things on the road as they've been testing them in LA and SF for the past year.. Obviously there are big questions around getting more of them into the US because of the tariffs on Chinese EVs so maybe that is affecting the rollout. (Ie why roll them out if we can't get anymore..?)
Our Drivers Will Own AVs’: Lyft’s Bet “On An Autonomous Future (link). I agree with Bird that we will see a hybrid model of AVs and human drivers for many years to come. But I’m not sold on the idea of drivers owning AVs. It sounds good in theory, but most drivers are living paycheck to paycheck, and don’t have the money to invest in an expensive AV” - think the logic here is more “drivers need a car anyway, they’ll probably buy an AV in the future since its wayy more passive and allows them to also do all the other things they need a car for”
Right but personal robotaxis will likely come in at the high end, and most drivers can't afford high end cars. Most of the Uber Black drivers actually rent through a fleet owner because of the high barrier to entry.
So I think it's more likely that the fleet owners will own AVs, not the actual drivers.
True, true, but I'd be fascinated by how this intersects with the financial markets here - you might be able to borrow money at a better rate to own an AV since the risk profile is lower and the data is better.
fair, there may definitely be an arbitrage there, but it won’t be had by existing Rideshare drivers since they are typically low to no credit. The difference now is that you could do this but then you have to actually drive yourself, or rent your car to someone, which is also a huge hassle. I definitely like the idea of buying and owning AV and sticking it onto the ridehail network though.
I think there'd be scope here for an expanded franchising model honestly. People love the idea of passive income and this is a much easier model than say vending machines or owning an entire McDonalds. I suspect what you'd see is a couple of big fleet operators who own swathes of AVs and then an entire set of smaller franchisees who individually borrow money and run a few AVs on the market.
Are you following Zeekr at all? Looking more and more like an important supply chain puzzle piece. Also, what's your take on the future of auto insurance?
And on insurance, I don't think there's much here tbh since Waymos at least are pretty safe, so way fewer accidents. So wouldn't that mean less business for insurance companies as AVs proliferate. Obviously when there is an accident, the PI attorneys will come sprinting after Waymo but no different than how it is today for Uber dealing with those guys.
My bet is that the primary auto carrier business will either disappear or change completely. My play is that the auto makers will contract straight with the reinsurance industry and the carriers will exit the market. Where's the liability play when the accidents plummet by +90%?
Yes I am really not sure what's taking so long to get these things on the road as they've been testing them in LA and SF for the past year.. Obviously there are big questions around getting more of them into the US because of the tariffs on Chinese EVs so maybe that is affecting the rollout. (Ie why roll them out if we can't get anymore..?)
More on the Zeekr - https://www.thedriverlessdigest.com/p/breaking-down-the-cost-of-a-waymo?utm_source=publication-search