Waymo Surges to 450K Weekly Trips and 14M Rides in 2025
Elon says Tesla Robotaxi to go driverless in 3 weeks, Rivian bets big on autonomy, and Woman gave birth in a Waymo
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Top Stories of the Week
Waymo crosses 450,000 weekly paid rides (link). According to a letter from Tiger Global viewed by CNBC, the firm estimates Waymo is now doing more than 450,000 weekly paid rides, nearly double the 250,000 milestone Waymo hit in April.
Tiger participated in Waymo’s most recent external funding round of $5.6 billion in 2024, and Waymo is also one of the largest positions in Tiger’s 2024 fund. So while you might expect Tiger to have some inside information here, the firm made sure to note that the 450,000-ride estimate is based solely on publicly available information.
My own calculations have Waymo at 423,500 trips per week as of the end of November with a MOM average growth rate of 9.18%1 so I think their number is accurate.
Waymo 2025 year in review (link). The company says it delivered 14 million paid trips this year and expects to cross 20 million lifetime rides by the end of December. Waymo is now averaging 1 million rides per month and is aiming to scale to 1 million rides per week by the end of 2026. Looking ahead, the company plans to expand into 20 additional cities next year, including international launches in Tokyo and London.
Other Stuff
Rivian goes big on autonomy, with custom silicon, lidar, and a hint at robotaxis (link). As a newly minted Rivian owner (after eight years of Teslas), I was excited for this news and feel qualified to comment on Rivian’s autonomy stack. They’re clearly behind Tesla, but it’s good to see Rivian putting real resources into this and aiming for some meaningful upgrades. And while the idea of personal robotaxis sounds great, I think that part is still a ways off.
Related: Rivian is building its own AI assistant (link).
Tesla CEO Elon Musk claims driverless Robotaxis coming to Austin in 3 weeks (link). We all know how Elon is with his timelines but it seems plausible that a few robotaxis will be driverless in 3 weeks, especially considering they could have remote operators watching 24/7 as back-up. The key thing to watch with Tesla is scale. If FSD is as good as Waymo, they should have hundreds of vehicles on the road in Austin in no time to match and surpass Waymo. As of now though, there are just 29.
‘Our Drivers Will Own AVs’: Lyft’s Bet On An Autonomous Future (link). I agree with Bird that we will see a hybrid model of AVs and human drivers for many years to come. But I’m not sold on the idea of drivers owning AVs. It sounds good in theory, but most drivers are living paycheck to paycheck, and don’t have the money to invest in an expensive AV — Instant Pay is still Lyft and Uber’s most popular product for a reason.
Waymo costs $97 more (13× the price) and still 9 minutes slower than Caltrain on the same San Francisco → Palo Alto route – despite having Waymo freeway access and this Caltrain being local (link).
Special delivery: A woman gave birth in a Waymo robotaxi in San Francisco (link).
Some people just can’t wait for their first Waymo ride
‘Uber is now offering free upgrades to Waymo! I ordered an Uber in Arizona, and it gave me the option to change to a Waymo for no extra charge’ (link). It’s not really a “free upgrade” — Uber has always priced Waymo rides the same as UberX/Comfort in Phoenix. If you’ve opted in to AVs, and your route is inside Waymo’s ODD with a vehicle available, the app will offer you the switch at the same fare you already agreed to. During peak demand, Waymo can keep all of its cars in Phoenix to itself, and during off-peak times, it can tap into Uber’s huge demand network to keep vehicles busy.
How Art Is Driving Waymo’s Feel-Good Branding (link, no paywall).
“Getting people where they need to go safely is our top priority,” said Arturo Siguenza, a brand and creative strategy manager at Waymo, but he added, “the artists wraps are an opportunity to put a smile on our rider’s face when they’re able to see cars with a cool or quirky design.”
Waymo: We’ve gone fully autonomous in San Antonio—meaning no human driver at the wheel (link).
New ‘KnoWay’ robotaxis cause chaos in upcoming Grand Theft Auto Online DLC (link).
Waymo Could Thin Already Shrinking Rideshare Driver Earnings (link).
Amazon robotaxi service Zoox to start charging for rides in 2026, with ‘laser focus’ on transporting people, not deliveries, says cofounder (link, no paywall).
The move, which would represent a key milestone for Zoox as it seeks to catch up with Alphabet’s Waymo, depends on obtaining federal regulatory and state approvals, Zoox cofounder and chief technology officer Jesse Levinson told the audience at the Fortune Brainstorm AI event in San Francisco on Monday.
‘This Is Why Tesla Will Inevitably Beat Waymo’ (link).
Demonstrably Safe AI For Autonomous Driving (link).
Elon Musk tells Google executive that “Waymo never really had a chance against Tesla” (link).
Tesla currently operates about 30 Robotaxi vehicles in Austin and 120 in the Bay Area, while Waymo had more than 2,500 across the country (at least 200 in Austin and 1,000 in the Bay Area) as of late November.
Tesla struggles to course correct from sales skid (link).
Waymo begins employee rides to and from SFO, with public rides coming soon (link).
What else we’re reading/listening to
Junko’s Tech Probe by Junko Yoshida: Waymo: Time to Talk up Teleoperation? (link).
How Waymo Spends Its Time Between Trips (link) by Matthew Raifman, PhD, MPP.
Some interesting commentary from Redditors on our first Waymo deadheading article (link).
AVs/Humans behaving badly
Waymo to issue voluntary software recall after close calls (link).
Baidu’s robotaxi causes accident in a central city of China, leaves two in intensive care (link).
Viral video of man hiding in trunk of Waymo raises safety concerns (link).
‘FREE TOPPINGS! On my Waymo ride last week’ (link).
‘Two Waymos made contact with each other in SF, roadside assistance came’ (link).
‘First and last Waymo ride’ (link).
Announcements/Partnerships/Fundraising
Zoox and T-Mobile Arena Join Forces for Futuristic Ride-Hailing (link).
Autolane is building ‘air traffic control’ for autonomous vehicles (link). Palo Alto–based Autolane is working on the infrastructure layer that helps coordinate all the little handoff moments in autonomous delivery — things like where exactly a vehicle should pull up to drop off groceries. They also just raised $7.4M to keep building this out.
Nexar Unveils Nexar Apex: The First Real-World AV Testing Standard, Powered by 10 Billion Miles of Human Driving Data (link).
“Simulation is a training tool, not a proving ground,” said Zach Greenberger, CEO of Nexar. “To make autonomy operationally scalable, we need a benchmark rooted in Physical Intelligence — knowledge born from billions of real miles and actual human decisions. Nexar is now providing the industry with the definitive ground truth needed to move from theoretical safety to trusted deployment.”
InDrive and AI Driver sign MoU to launch Riyadh AV pilot (link). The pilot will operate through inDrive’s platform with WeRide’s tech under the oversight of Saudi Arabia’s Transport General Authority (TGA).
Mercedes Jumps Into Robotaxis With China’s Momenta in Abu Dhabi (link, no paywall).
Neat Jobs
Head of Programs at Nuro (link) via Jiajun Zhu.
Talent Acquisition Partner at Terawatt (link) via Peter Cohen.
DC Market Operations Leader at Waymo (link) via Jake Reeder.
Operations Manager at Hetal Retail (link) via David Roger.
Editor in Chief at Ride AI & Alephic Media properties (link) via James Gross.
Industrial Design Intern at Zoox (link) via Becca McCann.
Senior Actuary at Cambridge Mobile Telematics (link) via Jamie Landers.
You can check out our new AV job board where we post all of the roles we feature (link). If people like it, I will find a way to turn it into something a bit prettier.
Cool Rides
‘My mother-in-law and her sisters recently took their first Waymo ride. You don’t need to speak Korean to understand their delight!’ (link).
‘American Council of the Blind’s Director of Advocacy and Governmental Affairs Claire Stanley, and her guide dog Tulane met with Zoox in San Francisco this week and took a ride in their fully autonomous robotaxi’ (link).
‘Took a plunge and did my first foray in a Waymo this week… interesting experience!’ (link).
Waymo Wrapped
Here’s mine :) (link).
‘What’s your waymotype?’ (link) Highest I’ve seen so far, but he’s also a Waymo employee 🤷🏻♂️
‘It’s waymo wrapped day’ (link).
‘Kept seeing these on the tl and thought waymo wrapped was a joke but it’s real’ (link).
‘I’ve logged over 100 miles in self-driving cars throughout 2025’ (link).
Shout-outs
Big thanks to TDD readers Josie-Dee L, Erik, Harry H, Isaac, and Donna for referring new subscribers. If there’s someone you think would enjoy TDD, just forward this email to them or use the referral button below.
Until next week.
-Harry
My calculations use the 14 million YTD trip number released by Waymo on 12/10/25 (very telling!). If you’re a client of mine, feel free to reach out for the full calculations/spreadsheet.
Our Drivers Will Own AVs’: Lyft’s Bet “On An Autonomous Future (link). I agree with Bird that we will see a hybrid model of AVs and human drivers for many years to come. But I’m not sold on the idea of drivers owning AVs. It sounds good in theory, but most drivers are living paycheck to paycheck, and don’t have the money to invest in an expensive AV” - think the logic here is more “drivers need a car anyway, they’ll probably buy an AV in the future since its wayy more passive and allows them to also do all the other things they need a car for”
Are you following Zeekr at all? Looking more and more like an important supply chain puzzle piece. Also, what's your take on the future of auto insurance?