Did Waymo Really Just Overtake Lyft in SF?
How long will Uber and Waymo’s partnership last, a fatal Tesla crash on FSD finally comes to light, and 74% of people still haven’t heard of Waymo
Hey, it’s Harry! Welcome to the 101 new subscribers who have signed up since our last newsletter. I’m excited to have you join the 1,557 AV enthusiasts, executives, and industry professionals who are already on board. It’s great to have you along for the ride as we explore the intersection of autonomy and rideshare, and the business of AVs.
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Top Stories of the Week
Waymo surpasses Lyft’s market share in San Francisco and is ‘on track’ to pass Uber in the next 12 months (link). The chart above was making the rounds this week but remember what I wrote about Yipit SF data when Waymo first matched Lyft’s market share in November:
The caveat was that it was only for trips that started and ended in Waymo’s operating domain. So trips like those to the airport, which is outside of Waymo’s operating area, didn’t count in this analysis.
I spent some time updating my own analysis this week and calculated Waymo’s market share in SF to be 20.5%. Not far off of Yipit’s estimate which makes sense considering how dense SF is. Waymo is able to serve a majority of trips except the longer ones outside of the city at the moment.
You can bet that once Waymo opens up freeways and starts doing trips to the airport, their market share will increase. Airport trips are also 2-3x the revenue of an average trip since they are longer, passengers are willing to pay more and/or they’re able to expense them. So while market share and number of trips are important metrics, you also want to think about the revenue and utilization of your fleet vehicles.
Cool Rides
Whoever at Waymo came up with this new livery idea deserves a promotion!
Just took my first ride in a Waymo driverless car in San Francisco (link).
Taking a self-driving taxi in China (link).
Waymo Stops Instantly for Dogs & People Running Into the Street (link). Wow, this video is impressive - and look how early Waymo detects the people on the map.
I used a Waymo self-driving car to get around in San Francisco. The car followed traffic rules better than most humans I know—smooth turns, safe distances, no sudden stops (link).
AVs behaving badly
Videos like this are why I have my doubts on Waymo. Blocking three emergency vehicles in the middle of an intersection, and it just looks confused (link). Waymo obviously needs to fix this issue but I don’t think it’s that big of a deal. The company can easily loop in a teleoperator any time the vehicle is stationary and detects light and sirens, and get it quickly out of the way. Over time, I think Waymo will get better at moving out of the way for emergency vehicles on its own but seems like this should be solvable today.
Oops Wrong Way(mo) (link). Great caption though, and art!
Turns out Waymo didn’t need lidar; they needed sonar 😂 (link). Ok you win the caption game for this week, sir.
Other Stuff
Waymos are getting more assertive. Why the driverless taxis are learning to drive like humans (link, no paywall). There’s no doubt that Waymos are safe, but assertive driving is a lot more subjective. But I tend to agree with the premise of this article - especially after my 80 minute Waymo ride a few weeks ago. It’s still got some work to do, but I noticed a marked improvement from previous rides - cool to see. What’s your experience been like?
A Fatal Tesla Crash Shows the Limits of Full Self-Driving (link, no paywall). This article brings up some valid criticisms of Tesla’s FSD product but the only problem is that the crash in question happened two years ago. Obviously it takes some time to surface the findings but the article implies that Tesla’s robotaxi service could face similar issues without addressing the fact that Teslas are now using Hardware 4 and FSD Version 13. And of course, the timing is a bit suspect as Tesla gears up for its ‘robotaxi launch’ next week.
Autonomy Markets: Waymo and Uber are working together today, but will their partnership survive over the long-term? (link). Good discussion. It’s clear from the Austin launch that Waymo is getting strong utilization on the Uber app. And one thing Alto’s CEO, Will Coleman told me on our podcast this week is that their fleet saw a nice utilization bump from their partnership with Uber. I think this could be especially valuable to Waymo during off peak hours where they’re already running discounts to spur demand. But there also comes a point where Waymo may be too reliant on Uber and that’s where it helps to have first party operations in cities like LA, SF, and Phoenix to fall back on or just use as leverage.
Survey of AV Brand perception - 74% not familiar or no opinion of Waymo, 89% for Zoox, and 88% for May mobility (link). Even though Waymo has ushered in a major inflection point for the AV industry, the average person has no idea they even exist. This makes sense since Waymo is only operating in a few markets but when you compare it to a brand like Uber, only 16% of recipients were unfamiliar. That’s a lot of awareness that needs to be spread but also education since I think the everyday consumer will be hesitant to ride in any type of AV. Again, this is where Uber’s brand and reach will be powerful. All Uber users will have to do is tick a box and then they’ll get matched with a Waymo in the best scenario possible for a first time AV rider (distance/price/vehicle/etc). The good news for Zoox and May is that they’re not far behind Waymo, I would have guessed 99% of people have never heard of Zoox since they have yet to do a paid driverless ride.
Chinese Robotaxi Companies Look to the Middle East for Growth (link, no paywall). I like the strategy here by the ‘Big Three’ of China’s robotaxi industry. It will be tough to expand into the United States anytime soon so the Middle East seems like the next best bet. I’m working hard to secure an executive from a Chinese robotaxi company for an interview, and may even make a trip out East in the future :)
We still know almost nothing about Tesla’s robotaxi service (link).
Paving the Way for Safer Roads: How Waymo and Nexar Are Enhancing Autonomous Vehicle Safety (link).
Waymo has officially hit the 10 million paid trips threshold — But did you know there's a robotaxi service in China that has done 11 million rides?! (link).
I wouldn’t go this far, but if Tesla’s FSD ever works as well as Waymo, they could be the bigger threat to Uber’s business. Uber’s value lies in its millions of daily active customers and its network of drivers. But the supply is so valuable because it’s variable. Uber does not own a single vehicle, so they can scale up/down to perfectly match the market. Waymo can’t do that with their fixed fleet, but Tesla could..
It’s Waymo’s World. We’re All Just Riding in It (link, no paywall).
Shout-outs
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Until next week.
-Harry
Great stuff as always. My key question is less about robo-ridehail versus human-ridehail and more about robo-ridehail versus personal vehicle ownership. Human ridehail (Uber Lyft et al.) has made virtually zero inroads versus personal car ownership. (Yes, I know, everyone knows someone who gave up their car to just ridehail everywhere, but if we look at personal vehicles owned per capita in the US, the Number Not Go Down.) Will robo-ridehail do better in this regard? Or does war end before it even starts, as it were, as people just own their own personal AV?
From TDD reader William P via email:
The assertiveness comment inspired this email. I've been using Waymo for the last 2 years in SF, almost exclusively other than airport rides. And just the other day I was in the passenger seat when my hunch that they've gotten more assertive was validated - we were approaching a light with the intent of making a red turn. Right before we got to the light, it turned from yellow to red. I figured Waymo would stop, even though the cars coming from the other way hadn't started moving yet. A moderately aggressive person slows down but doesn't stop and just takes the right turn 95% of the time. I was floored when the Waymo did the same thing. It seemed like a step change in Waymo's nuanced understanding as well as my riding experience.
Another great example - making a left on a green light, but not a green arrow. You used to get stuck for a couple of lights sometimes. Now the Waymo will start inching out and assert itself into the intersection to make the left.