Great stuff as always. My key question is less about robo-ridehail versus human-ridehail and more about robo-ridehail versus personal vehicle ownership. Human ridehail (Uber Lyft et al.) has made virtually zero inroads versus personal car ownership. (Yes, I know, everyone knows someone who gave up their car to just ridehail everywhere, but if we look at personal vehicles owned per capita in the US, the Number Not Go Down.) Will robo-ridehail do better in this regard? Or does war end before it even starts, as it were, as people just own their own personal AV?
I think it will have minimal impact a la Uber for a long time. The cost is still prohibitive and as you note, you're competing against sunk costs (ie the average family that already owns multiple cars).
Uber does millions of trips a day in the US, so until Waymo does at least 1 million trips per day, I don't think we're going to see much of an impact on personal vehicle ownership.
I agree. I spoke years ago with A Senior Person at a robotaxi company which will remain nameless, and he or she said that in their modeling of the future they saw by 2035 or whenever only marginal impact on personal vehicle ownership: e.g. if by 2035 the average family would otherwise own 3 cars, now they would own 2. This is a massive change of course, but it would be pretty much invisible from the average person's point of view (that is, if you've always owned 2 cars you don't see it as a "loss" to NOT own 3).
Lots of reasons for this, but (only half joking!) CHILD CAR SEATS are a huge part of this: once you have your 1 2 or 3 favorite child seats picked out (at $50-$200 each!), and installed in your car (which is NOT EASY!), you ain't gonna be up for unbuckling and wrestling them into a robotaxi every time you go somewhere with the kids. And if one thinks the robotaxi company could supply the seats, well start thinking about who pays the cleaning fees when little Larry urps up on it, or buries a few hundred cheerios in the crevices! Thus, People with Young Kids tend to have cars. Just one aspect of this.
Any type of ridehail option that requires specialty gear also reduces the density, so worse pricing/ETA/experience/etc. Which is where Waymo struggles the most.
There's a reason why Uber hasn't rolled out a widespread 'carseat' option even though I'm guessing it's a top requested feature..
Not to drag out a long chain of comments, but to drag out a long chain of comments (grin) I think another barrier to robo- or human- taxi complete displacement of private ownership is chained errands. As in, go to grocery store, shop for 30 minutes, go to dry cleaners, pick up dry cleaning, head to another store and then realize it's time to pick the kids up from school. In cases like this one either is repeatedly ordering another Uber (incurring wait times) or keeping the Uber running while you're doing stuff (incurring more fare costs).
The assertiveness comment inspired this email. I've been using Waymo for the last 2 years in SF, almost exclusively other than airport rides. And just the other day I was in the passenger seat when my hunch that they've gotten more assertive was validated - we were approaching a light with the intent of making a red turn. Right before we got to the light, it turned from yellow to red. I figured Waymo would stop, even though the cars coming from the other way hadn't started moving yet. A moderately aggressive person slows down but doesn't stop and just takes the right turn 95% of the time. I was floored when the Waymo did the same thing. It seemed like a step change in Waymo's nuanced understanding as well as my riding experience.
Another great example - making a left on a green light, but not a green arrow. You used to get stuck for a couple of lights sometimes. Now the Waymo will start inching out and assert itself into the intersection to make the left.
Great stuff as always. My key question is less about robo-ridehail versus human-ridehail and more about robo-ridehail versus personal vehicle ownership. Human ridehail (Uber Lyft et al.) has made virtually zero inroads versus personal car ownership. (Yes, I know, everyone knows someone who gave up their car to just ridehail everywhere, but if we look at personal vehicles owned per capita in the US, the Number Not Go Down.) Will robo-ridehail do better in this regard? Or does war end before it even starts, as it were, as people just own their own personal AV?
I think it will have minimal impact a la Uber for a long time. The cost is still prohibitive and as you note, you're competing against sunk costs (ie the average family that already owns multiple cars).
Uber does millions of trips a day in the US, so until Waymo does at least 1 million trips per day, I don't think we're going to see much of an impact on personal vehicle ownership.
I agree. I spoke years ago with A Senior Person at a robotaxi company which will remain nameless, and he or she said that in their modeling of the future they saw by 2035 or whenever only marginal impact on personal vehicle ownership: e.g. if by 2035 the average family would otherwise own 3 cars, now they would own 2. This is a massive change of course, but it would be pretty much invisible from the average person's point of view (that is, if you've always owned 2 cars you don't see it as a "loss" to NOT own 3).
Lots of reasons for this, but (only half joking!) CHILD CAR SEATS are a huge part of this: once you have your 1 2 or 3 favorite child seats picked out (at $50-$200 each!), and installed in your car (which is NOT EASY!), you ain't gonna be up for unbuckling and wrestling them into a robotaxi every time you go somewhere with the kids. And if one thinks the robotaxi company could supply the seats, well start thinking about who pays the cleaning fees when little Larry urps up on it, or buries a few hundred cheerios in the crevices! Thus, People with Young Kids tend to have cars. Just one aspect of this.
Any type of ridehail option that requires specialty gear also reduces the density, so worse pricing/ETA/experience/etc. Which is where Waymo struggles the most.
There's a reason why Uber hasn't rolled out a widespread 'carseat' option even though I'm guessing it's a top requested feature..
Not to drag out a long chain of comments, but to drag out a long chain of comments (grin) I think another barrier to robo- or human- taxi complete displacement of private ownership is chained errands. As in, go to grocery store, shop for 30 minutes, go to dry cleaners, pick up dry cleaning, head to another store and then realize it's time to pick the kids up from school. In cases like this one either is repeatedly ordering another Uber (incurring wait times) or keeping the Uber running while you're doing stuff (incurring more fare costs).
From TDD reader William P via email:
The assertiveness comment inspired this email. I've been using Waymo for the last 2 years in SF, almost exclusively other than airport rides. And just the other day I was in the passenger seat when my hunch that they've gotten more assertive was validated - we were approaching a light with the intent of making a red turn. Right before we got to the light, it turned from yellow to red. I figured Waymo would stop, even though the cars coming from the other way hadn't started moving yet. A moderately aggressive person slows down but doesn't stop and just takes the right turn 95% of the time. I was floored when the Waymo did the same thing. It seemed like a step change in Waymo's nuanced understanding as well as my riding experience.
Another great example - making a left on a green light, but not a green arrow. You used to get stuck for a couple of lights sometimes. Now the Waymo will start inching out and assert itself into the intersection to make the left.